Last 240 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +120.0R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 147 | 93 |
| Win rate | 54% | 46% |
| Expectancy | +0.59R | +0.36R |
| Total R | +86.1R | +33.8R |
| Equity PnL | +65.8% | +27.6% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 22:46 | ARM long | 0.62% | 1:2.3 | +2.52R | 17.0d |
| Oct 2, 11:22 | NVDA short | 0.68% | 1:1.9 | −0.79R | 14.7d |
| Oct 2, 20:21 | NVDA long | 0.79% | 1:1.7 | −0.76R | 2.4h |
| Oct 1, 02:23 | AMD long | 0.78% | 1:2.2 | +1.92R | 14.0d |
| Sep 30, 22:39 | TSM short | 0.85% | 1:2.2 | −0.98R | 5.7d |
| Sep 30, 23:37 | ARM short | 0.77% | 1:2.0 | −1.00R | 4.3d |
| Sep 25, 01:17 | NVDA long | 0.83% | 1:2.4 | −0.71R | 1.2d |
| Sep 24, 20:16 | NVDA long | 0.81% | 1:2.2 | −0.94R | 5.7d |
| Sep 23, 02:10 | NVDA short | 0.99% | 1:2.0 | −0.81R | 4.9d |
| Sep 18, 14:53 | NVDA short | 0.76% | 1:2.5 | +2.78R | 7.5d |
| Sep 18, 04:03 | TSM long | 0.97% | 1:2.4 | +1.32R | 9.1d |
| Sep 18, 00:12 | TSM short | 0.91% | 1:2.1 | −0.77R | 1.0d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −1.2% | +3.1% | +17.9% | +10.9% | +31.7% | +39.2% | +40.0% |
| Followers | −1.2% | +3.1% | +17.8% | +10.8% | +31.4% | +38.7% | +39.5% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +72.5% |
| Excess vs BTC | −1.6% | +2.1% | +6.6% | −60.3% | −24.0% | −30.3% | −32.5% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −14.2% | Apr 5, 2026 | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 17, 2026 | 81 d | 53 d |
| 2 | −6.6% | Oct 20, 2025 | Nov 16, 2025 | Dec 26, 2025 | 27 d | 40 d |
| 3 | −5.4% | Jan 6, 2026 | Jan 23, 2026 | Feb 1, 2026 | 17 d | 9 d |
| 4 | −4.0% | Aug 28, 2026 | Sep 19, 2026 | Sep 28, 2026 | 22 d | 9 d |
| 5 | −1.9% | Mar 14, 2026 | Mar 22, 2026 | Mar 25, 2026 | 8 d | 3 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL