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© 2026 PropChangeBuilt on Solana

Trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Seat Contracts limit behavior; they do not guarantee profit.

OperationalRisk Engine 14msEpoch ends in —Solanaslot —· 0.4s
EURGBP London Breakout v278.47+8.70%SOL Funding Carry Plus79.58+8.10%SOL Funding Carry73.91+8.30%ETH Scalper77.06-2.20%USDCAD Session Fade v269.33-0.50%ETH Funding Carry Lite72.95+1.30%BTC Funding Carry X84.49+0.80%EURUSD London Breakout55.36+8.40%Pairs73.56+7.70%Index Carry & Roll18.74+0.90%AI Leaders Momentum58.43-2.90%USDCAD Session Fade71.58-1.90%BTC Basis Arb28.50-2.80%BTC Funding Carry v276.22+5.10%
EURGBP London Breakout v278.47+8.70%SOL Funding Carry Plus79.58+8.10%SOL Funding Carry73.91+8.30%ETH Scalper77.06-2.20%USDCAD Session Fade v269.33-0.50%ETH Funding Carry Lite72.95+1.30%BTC Funding Carry X84.49+0.80%EURUSD London Breakout55.36+8.40%Pairs73.56+7.70%Index Carry & Roll18.74+0.90%AI Leaders Momentum58.43-2.90%USDCAD Session Fade71.58-1.90%BTC Basis Arb28.50-2.80%BTC Funding Carry v276.22+5.10%
DocsFees--:--:-- UTC
StrategiesSeat MarketLeaderboardHow it worksFees
Strategiesethan.bqARB Momentum Rotation Lite

ARB Momentum Rotation Lite

ActiveCryptoBinance
EBethan.bqVerified+·Momentum rotation · weeklyView trader
Return 12m
+34.2%
897 days of history
Max drawdown
23.4%
Current 9.8%
Sortino
0.89
Sharpe 0.63 · PSR 0.84
Compliance
20/29
69% of Epochs kept
Risk score
67
67 · Medium
Capacity used
93%
177/190 seats · $570k
OverviewAnalyticsSimulatorSeat ContractCapacity & SeatsFollowers' resultsEpochs

Trade analytics

Last 34 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop

Avg risk / trade
1.01%
median 1.00% · max 1.28%
Avg planned R:R
1 : 2.02
target distance ÷ stop distance
Realized R:R
1 : 2.05
avg win +1.65R · avg loss −0.81R
Expectancy
+0.35R
per trade
SQN
1.61
Average
Kelly fraction
21.2%
optimal f · use ¼–½ in practice
Win rate
47.1%
profit factor 1.82
Consecutive W / L
3 / 3
longest streaks
Largest win / loss
+2.4R / −1.0R
Avg hold
8.3d / 4.4d
winners / losers
Avg MAE / MFE
0.59R / 1.14R
adverse / favorable excursion
Capture ratio
85%
of MFE kept by winners

R-multiple distribution

How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk

Cumulative R

Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +11.9R

Risk per trade

% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line

Performance by time

Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)

Long vs short

LongShort
Trades2014
Win rate45%50%
Expectancy+0.31R+0.41R
Total R+6.2R+5.7R
Equity PnL+6.4%+6.1%

Recent trades

ClosedInstrumentRiskPlan R:RResultHold
Sep 12, 11:03ARB short0.96%1:2.3+1.78R11.2d
Sep 8, 05:25ARB long1.14%1:1.8+1.64R1.3d
Jun 7, 07:51ARB long0.81%1:1.8−0.86R4.5h
May 21, 01:19AVAX short1.08%1:2.2−0.91R1.0d
Apr 29, 01:57TIA long0.95%1:1.7+1.77R15.3d
Mar 29, 20:43SOL long1.09%1:2.0−0.97R1.9d
Mar 18, 06:59ARB long1.19%1:1.6−0.71R8.7d
Mar 10, 03:14AVAX long0.95%1:2.2+1.33R6.7h
Feb 13, 01:49AVAX short1.00%1:2.0+1.84R9.8h
Feb 4, 15:36SOL long1.09%1:2.2−0.80R2.3d
Dec 18, 17:50TIA short1.13%1:1.6−0.68R1.2d
Dec 17, 14:50ARB short0.98%1:1.8+1.47R46.8d

Performance statistics

Based on 34 trades over 897 days. Metric set v1.4 · recomputable from raw exchange data.Thin sample — treat with caution

Trailing returns

Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows

Period1W1M3M6MYTD1YAll
Strategy−0.2%−7.2%−4.5%+4.2%+28.9%+34.2%+26.1%
Followers−0.2%−7.2%−4.5%+4.2%+28.9%+34.2%+26.0%
BTC+0.4%+1.0%+11.3%+71.2%+55.7%+69.5%+165.8%
Excess vs BTC−0.5%−8.2%−15.8%−67.0%−26.8%−35.3%−139.7%

Returns

Return 1m
−7.2%
Return 3m
−4.5%
Return 12m
+34.2%
Return since start
+26.1%
CAGR
+9.9%

Risk

Max drawdown
23.4%
Volatility (ann.)
17.5%
Downside deviation
12.3%
Ulcer index
9.85%
VaR / CVaR 95% (daily)
1.41% / 1.95%
VaR / CVaR 99% (daily)
2.28% / 3.25%
Longest time under water
455 days
Max / avg leverage
4.6x / 2.1x
Top-3 trades share of PnL
24%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.63
Sortino
0.89
Calmar
0.42
Recovery factor
1.12
Probabilistic Sharpe (PSR)
0.84
Omega ratio
1.09
Gain-to-pain
0.09

Trades

Trades
34
Win rate
45%
Payoff ratio
1.83
Profit factor
1.50
Expectancy
62 bps
Tail ratio
3.3
Avg holding time
6.9 d

Consistency

Profitable months
55%
Equity curve R²
0.35
Longest losing streak
9 days
Skew / kurtosis
-0.32 / 4.7
Consistency score
56/100

Benchmark (vs BTC)

Beta
0.02
Alpha (ann.)
+9.7%
Correlation / R²
0.07 / 0.01
Up / down capture
4% / 2%
Tracking error
55.8%
Information ratio
-0.78

Strategy vs BTC

Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time

Daily return pair365 daysFit · β0.02

BTC daily return →

Rolling 90-day beta & correlation
Oct 5, 2026Beta0.01Correlation0.03

Rolling risk-adjusted performance

90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced

Oct 5, 2026Sharpe 90d-0.95Volatility 90d19.4%
Volatility (ann.)

Return distribution

Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days

Up daysDown daysNormal fitVaR 95%−1.41%

Worst drawdowns

The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took

#DepthPeakTroughRecoveredDeclineRecovery
1
−23.4%
Jan 10, 2025Oct 6, 2025Apr 11, 2026269 d187 d
2
−9.8%
Sep 3, 2024Oct 19, 2024Dec 10, 202446 d52 d
3
−9.8%
Aug 26, 2026Oct 6, 2026Ongoing41 d—
4
−9.0%
Jul 27, 2026Aug 10, 2026Aug 26, 202614 d16 d
5
−8.1%
Jul 4, 2026Jul 13, 2026Jul 27, 20269 d14 d

Day-of-week profile

Average daily return and share of up days by weekday

Share of up days
53%
51%
54%
59%
53%
47%
48%

Exposure

Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits

Gross exposure64% of equityPeak192%
Average share of exposure
  • ARB65% · 87.9%
  • SOL27% · 36.8%
  • AVAX5% · 6.9%
  • TIA3% · 3.7%

Performance by instrument

Share of net PnL

Seat price30 days
63.09USDC

Price rises as seats fill · locked for your term

Copy up to $3,000

1
Base price
44.00 USDC / 30d
Term factor (30/30)^0.9
× 1.000
Occupancy factor 1 + 0.5 × 93.2%²
× 1.434
Total
63.09 USDC
177/190 seats13 free
  • Held in escrow until Oct 22, 2026
  • Released to the trader if the Seat Contract is kept
  • Refunded to you if the contract is breached
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