Last 34 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +11.9R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 20 | 14 |
| Win rate | 45% | 50% |
| Expectancy | +0.31R | +0.41R |
| Total R | +6.2R | +5.7R |
| Equity PnL | +6.4% | +6.1% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 11:03 | ARB short | 0.96% | 1:2.3 | +1.78R | 11.2d |
| Sep 8, 05:25 | ARB long | 1.14% | 1:1.8 | +1.64R | 1.3d |
| Jun 7, 07:51 | ARB long | 0.81% | 1:1.8 | −0.86R | 4.5h |
| May 21, 01:19 | AVAX short | 1.08% | 1:2.2 | −0.91R | 1.0d |
| Apr 29, 01:57 | TIA long | 0.95% | 1:1.7 | +1.77R | 15.3d |
| Mar 29, 20:43 | SOL long | 1.09% | 1:2.0 | −0.97R | 1.9d |
| Mar 18, 06:59 | ARB long | 1.19% | 1:1.6 | −0.71R | 8.7d |
| Mar 10, 03:14 | AVAX long | 0.95% | 1:2.2 | +1.33R | 6.7h |
| Feb 13, 01:49 | AVAX short | 1.00% | 1:2.0 | +1.84R | 9.8h |
| Feb 4, 15:36 | SOL long | 1.09% | 1:2.2 | −0.80R | 2.3d |
| Dec 18, 17:50 | TIA short | 1.13% | 1:1.6 | −0.68R | 1.2d |
| Dec 17, 14:50 | ARB short | 0.98% | 1:1.8 | +1.47R | 46.8d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −0.2% | −7.2% | −4.5% | +4.2% | +28.9% | +34.2% | +26.1% |
| Followers | −0.2% | −7.2% | −4.5% | +4.2% | +28.9% | +34.2% | +26.0% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +165.8% |
| Excess vs BTC | −0.5% | −8.2% | −15.8% | −67.0% | −26.8% | −35.3% | −139.7% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −23.4% | Jan 10, 2025 | Oct 6, 2025 | Apr 11, 2026 | 269 d | 187 d |
| 2 | −9.8% | Sep 3, 2024 | Oct 19, 2024 | Dec 10, 2024 | 46 d | 52 d |
| 3 | −9.8% | Aug 26, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | Ongoing | 41 d | — |
| 4 | −9.0% | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 26, 2026 | 14 d | 16 d |
| 5 | −8.1% | Jul 4, 2026 | Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 27, 2026 | 9 d | 14 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL