Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +4.4R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 21 | 9 |
| Win rate | 57% | 67% |
| Expectancy | +0.09R | +0.27R |
| Total R | +2.0R | +2.4R |
| Equity PnL | +2.2% | +1.6% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 09:46 | AUDJPY long | 0.60% | 1:1.2 | −0.89R | 13.1h |
| Sep 30, 09:08 | MXNJPY long | 0.85% | 1:0.8 | +0.60R | 10.7d |
| Sep 24, 08:41 | AUDJPY short | 0.79% | 1:1.2 | −0.71R | 21.9d |
| Aug 14, 16:34 | NZDJPY short | 0.65% | 1:1.1 | +1.06R | 2.0d |
| Aug 3, 07:20 | MXNJPY long | 0.73% | 1:1.0 | +0.84R | 1.5d |
| Jul 23, 10:45 | NZDJPY short | 0.72% | 1:1.2 | +1.15R | 1.6d |
| Jul 13, 10:28 | AUDJPY short | 0.63% | 1:1.0 | +0.61R | 8.6d |
| Jun 3, 14:26 | AUDJPY short | 0.94% | 1:1.2 | +0.76R | 8.2d |
| May 25, 14:23 | NZDJPY long | 0.66% | 1:1.1 | +0.76R | 11.8d |
| May 22, 11:19 | AUDJPY short | 0.90% | 1:0.9 | +0.75R | 4.9d |
| May 18, 11:52 | AUDJPY long | 0.68% | 1:1.1 | +0.78R | 41.5d |
| Feb 4, 12:43 | MXNJPY long | 0.81% | 1:0.8 | +0.56R | 2.2d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +2.2% | +6.7% | +4.0% | +11.0% | +19.1% | +21.3% | +94.0% |
| Followers | +2.2% | +6.7% | +4.0% | +11.0% | +19.1% | +21.3% | +94.0% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +169.0% |
| Excess vs BTC | +1.8% | +5.7% | −7.3% | −60.2% | −36.6% | −48.2% | −74.9% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −9.7% | Jun 5, 2026 | Sep 3, 2026 | Ongoing | 90 d | — |
| 2 | −7.7% | May 3, 2025 | Jun 1, 2025 | Jun 24, 2025 | 29 d | 23 d |
| 3 | −6.6% | Feb 5, 2026 | Feb 20, 2026 | Mar 31, 2026 | 15 d | 39 d |
| 4 | −6.4% | Jul 6, 2025 | Jul 25, 2025 | Sep 11, 2025 | 19 d | 48 d |
| 5 | −5.2% | Nov 6, 2025 | Dec 1, 2025 | Dec 21, 2025 | 25 d | 20 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL