Last 43 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +11.2R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 25 | 18 |
| Win rate | 52% | 39% |
| Expectancy | +0.34R | +0.15R |
| Total R | +8.5R | +2.7R |
| Equity PnL | +6.9% | +2.1% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 16:21 | INJ long | 1.00% | 1:1.9 | −0.77R | 7.9d |
| Sep 8, 09:01 | AVAX short | 1.04% | 1:1.5 | +1.74R | 2.7d |
| Sep 3, 19:16 | INJ long | 1.08% | 1:1.3 | +1.00R | 3.4d |
| Aug 25, 19:17 | AVAX long | 1.12% | 1:1.5 | −0.89R | 4.1d |
| Aug 13, 03:55 | INJ short | 0.70% | 1:2.0 | −0.76R | 2.2d |
| Jun 26, 11:27 | AVAX long | 1.12% | 1:1.9 | −0.69R | 3.2d |
| Jun 18, 06:05 | SOL long | 0.92% | 1:1.7 | +0.96R | 7.6d |
| May 23, 05:53 | INJ long | 1.08% | 1:1.9 | −0.76R | 8.8d |
| May 12, 17:03 | SOL short | 0.83% | 1:1.9 | −0.63R | 1.7d |
| Apr 22, 20:26 | SOL long | 0.82% | 1:1.7 | +1.29R | 1.9d |
| Apr 16, 07:24 | SOL short | 0.97% | 1:1.8 | +1.98R | 5.1d |
| Mar 5, 14:05 | INJ long | 1.13% | 1:2.0 | +1.39R | 6.6h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −0.3% | −0.9% | +0.5% | +1.1% | +3.0% | +11.7% | +27.9% |
| Followers | −0.3% | −0.9% | +0.5% | +1.0% | +3.0% | +11.6% | +27.8% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +276.7% |
| Excess vs BTC | −0.7% | −1.9% | −10.8% | −70.1% | −52.7% | −57.8% | −248.8% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −9.6% | Jan 27, 2026 | May 23, 2026 | Ongoing | 116 d | — |
| 2 | −5.6% | Apr 14, 2025 | Jun 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 | 77 d | 30 d |
| 3 | −5.0% | Feb 13, 2025 | Mar 2, 2025 | Mar 29, 2025 | 17 d | 27 d |
| 4 | −4.0% | Dec 2, 2025 | Dec 12, 2025 | Jan 6, 2026 | 10 d | 25 d |
| 5 | −3.3% | Aug 22, 2025 | Sep 16, 2025 | Oct 16, 2025 | 25 d | 30 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL