Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +8.6R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 17 | 13 |
| Win rate | 82% | 92% |
| Expectancy | +0.26R | +0.33R |
| Total R | +4.3R | +4.2R |
| Equity PnL | +2.1% | +1.9% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 21:02 | SOL long | 0.40% | 1:0.6 | −0.62R | 6.0d |
| Sep 30, 21:05 | BTC long | 0.41% | 1:0.6 | +0.70R | 1.9d |
| Sep 26, 18:04 | BTC long | 0.58% | 1:0.5 | +0.46R | 2.4d |
| Sep 8, 01:26 | SOL long | 0.40% | 1:0.6 | +0.64R | 26.3d |
| Aug 24, 08:06 | SOL long | 0.38% | 1:0.5 | +0.40R | 19.6d |
| Aug 18, 00:18 | BTC long | 0.52% | 1:0.7 | +0.38R | 12.3d |
| Jul 28, 01:00 | SOL long | 0.41% | 1:0.4 | +0.35R | 12.9d |
| Jul 20, 21:09 | BTC short | 0.47% | 1:0.4 | +0.35R | 49.4d |
| Jul 17, 20:23 | SOL short | 0.46% | 1:0.6 | +0.54R | 1.8d |
| Jul 15, 11:59 | SOL short | 0.39% | 1:0.4 | +0.43R | 9.9d |
| Jul 6, 18:55 | BTC long | 0.57% | 1:0.5 | +0.48R | 9.3h |
| Jul 5, 19:47 | BTC short | 0.45% | 1:0.6 | +0.48R | 75.3d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +0.4% | +1.5% | +0.9% | +10.4% | +12.5% | +12.5% |
| Followers | +0.4% | +1.5% | +0.8% | +10.4% | +12.4% | +12.4% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +30.1% | +30.1% |
| Excess vs BTC | +0.0% | +0.5% | −10.4% | −60.8% | −17.6% | −17.6% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.9% | Jul 21, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Ongoing | 37 d | — |
| 2 | −3.8% | Jun 16, 2026 | Jul 5, 2026 | Jul 21, 2026 | 19 d | 16 d |
| 3 | −3.0% | May 6, 2026 | May 15, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | 9 d | 6 d |
| 4 | −1.2% | May 21, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | May 25, 2026 | 1 d | 3 d |
| 5 | −1.1% | May 29, 2026 | Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 2, 2026 | 3 d | 1 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL