Last 400 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +51.7R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 224 | 176 |
| Win rate | 58% | 71% |
| Expectancy | +0.04R | +0.24R |
| Total R | +9.1R | +42.6R |
| Equity PnL | +8.7% | +31.2% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 15:41 | BTC long | 0.81% | 1:0.8 | +0.77R | 3.8h |
| Oct 6, 00:12 | BTC short | 0.57% | 1:0.8 | +0.91R | 6.3h |
| Oct 4, 10:36 | BTC short | 0.84% | 1:0.7 | −0.99R | 0.1h |
| Oct 4, 12:00 | BTC long | 0.81% | 1:0.9 | +0.61R | 3.0h |
| Oct 3, 01:53 | BTC short | 0.78% | 1:0.7 | +0.59R | 7.4h |
| Oct 2, 14:06 | BTC long | 0.62% | 1:0.9 | −0.85R | 2.6h |
| Oct 2, 13:47 | BTC short | 0.83% | 1:0.8 | +0.48R | 5.2h |
| Oct 2, 16:44 | BTC long | 0.72% | 1:0.7 | −0.79R | 6.5h |
| Sep 30, 12:49 | BTC long | 0.92% | 1:1.0 | +1.04R | 4.0h |
| Sep 30, 19:33 | BTC long | 0.92% | 1:0.7 | +0.55R | 14.6h |
| Sep 29, 00:21 | BTC short | 0.77% | 1:0.9 | +0.90R | 7.0h |
| Sep 29, 02:13 | BTC long | 0.84% | 1:0.8 | +0.86R | 6.3h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.8% | −7.2% | −2.5% | +17.2% | +22.1% | +21.8% | +40.2% |
| Followers | +1.7% | −7.3% | −2.9% | +16.4% | +20.8% | +20.1% | +37.3% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +83.7% |
| Excess vs BTC | +1.4% | −8.2% | −13.8% | −54.0% | −33.6% | −47.7% | −43.5% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −15.9% | Sep 8, 2025 | Feb 9, 2026 | Apr 13, 2026 | 154 d | 63 d |
| 2 | −14.7% | Aug 14, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Ongoing | 47 d | — |
| 3 | −5.9% | Jul 27, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Aug 9, 2026 | 4 d | 9 d |
| 4 | −5.8% | Apr 30, 2026 | May 13, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | 13 d | 21 d |
| 5 | −5.4% | Jun 25, 2025 | Jul 24, 2025 | Aug 5, 2025 | 29 d | 12 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL