Last 173 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +80.6R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 96 | 77 |
| Win rate | 46% | 44% |
| Expectancy | +0.53R | +0.39R |
| Total R | +50.9R | +29.7R |
| Equity PnL | +49.7% | +27.2% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 02:11 | SOL long | 0.77% | 1:2.4 | +2.60R | 13.8h |
| Oct 2, 08:04 | DOGE long | 0.97% | 1:2.5 | −0.72R | 3.8h |
| Sep 30, 12:09 | SUI short | 1.07% | 1:2.1 | −0.85R | 1.2d |
| Sep 22, 22:53 | SUI long | 1.03% | 1:2.8 | −0.94R | 9.1h |
| Sep 7, 20:44 | DOGE short | 1.07% | 1:1.9 | −0.64R | 18.7h |
| Sep 6, 10:17 | SUI long | 0.76% | 1:1.9 | −0.90R | 8.3h |
| Aug 28, 18:54 | SUI long | 0.99% | 1:2.4 | +2.23R | 7.5h |
| Aug 27, 12:51 | DOGE long | 1.17% | 1:2.3 | −0.72R | 1.7h |
| Aug 19, 00:50 | ETH short | 0.73% | 1:2.7 | +2.39R | 8.6h |
| Aug 11, 02:05 | DOGE short | 1.15% | 1:2.9 | +2.38R | 22.9h |
| Aug 9, 19:20 | DOGE long | 0.98% | 1:2.2 | −0.78R | 0.6h |
| Aug 2, 19:07 | SUI short | 0.80% | 1:2.6 | +1.96R | 7.5h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.9% | −6.0% | +4.6% | +16.4% | +23.4% | +21.2% | +57.4% |
| Followers | +1.9% | −6.1% | +4.6% | +16.2% | +23.2% | +20.9% | +56.7% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +94.2% |
| Excess vs BTC | +1.5% | −7.0% | −6.6% | −54.8% | −32.3% | −48.3% | −36.9% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −9.6% | Aug 30, 2026 | Sep 28, 2026 | Ongoing | 29 d | — |
| 2 | −8.4% | Nov 2, 2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | Mar 31, 2026 | 59 d | 90 d |
| 3 | −7.4% | Apr 3, 2026 | May 4, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | 31 d | 23 d |
| 4 | −4.1% | May 29, 2025 | Jun 22, 2025 | Jul 19, 2025 | 24 d | 27 d |
| 5 | −3.1% | Jul 25, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | 6 d | 12 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL