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© 2026 PropChangeBuilt on Solana

Trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Seat Contracts limit behavior; they do not guarantee profit.

OperationalRisk Engine 14msEpoch ends in —Solanaslot —· 0.4s
EURGBP London Breakout v278.47+8.70%SOL Funding Carry Plus79.58+8.10%SOL Funding Carry73.91+8.30%ETH Scalper77.06-2.20%USDCAD Session Fade v269.33-0.50%ETH Funding Carry Lite72.95+1.30%BTC Funding Carry X84.49+0.80%EURUSD London Breakout55.36+8.40%Pairs73.56+7.70%Index Carry & Roll18.74+0.90%AI Leaders Momentum58.43-2.90%USDCAD Session Fade71.58-1.90%BTC Basis Arb28.50-2.80%BTC Funding Carry v276.22+5.10%
EURGBP London Breakout v278.47+8.70%SOL Funding Carry Plus79.58+8.10%SOL Funding Carry73.91+8.30%ETH Scalper77.06-2.20%USDCAD Session Fade v269.33-0.50%ETH Funding Carry Lite72.95+1.30%BTC Funding Carry X84.49+0.80%EURUSD London Breakout55.36+8.40%Pairs73.56+7.70%Index Carry & Roll18.74+0.90%AI Leaders Momentum58.43-2.90%USDCAD Session Fade71.58-1.90%BTC Basis Arb28.50-2.80%BTC Funding Carry v276.22+5.10%
DocsFees--:--:-- UTC
StrategiesSeat MarketLeaderboardHow it worksFees
Strategieslukas.fDOGE Breakout

DOGE Breakout

ActiveCryptoBinance
LFlukas.fVerified+·Breakout · intradayView trader
Return 12m
+21.2%
560 days of history
Max drawdown
9.6%
Current 7.1%
Sortino
3.37
Sharpe 2.22 · PSR 1.00
Compliance
16/18
89% of Epochs kept
Risk score
61
61 · Medium
Capacity used
28%
55/196 seats · $590k
OverviewAnalyticsSimulatorSeat ContractCapacity & SeatsFollowers' resultsEpochs

Trade analytics

Last 173 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop

Avg risk / trade
0.97%
median 0.98% · max 1.21%
Avg planned R:R
1 : 2.36
target distance ÷ stop distance
Realized R:R
1 : 2.45
avg win +2.06R · avg loss −0.84R
Expectancy
+0.47R
per trade
SQN
3.13
Excellent
Kelly fraction
22.7%
optimal f · use ¼–½ in practice
Win rate
45.1%
profit factor 2.01
Consecutive W / L
5 / 7
longest streaks
Largest win / loss
+3.2R / −1.4R
Avg hold
17.6h / 15.2h
winners / losers
Avg MAE / MFE
0.66R / 1.35R
adverse / favorable excursion
Capture ratio
84%
of MFE kept by winners

R-multiple distribution

How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk

Cumulative R

Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +80.6R

Risk per trade

% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line

Performance by time

Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)

Long vs short

LongShort
Trades9677
Win rate46%44%
Expectancy+0.53R+0.39R
Total R+50.9R+29.7R
Equity PnL+49.7%+27.2%

Recent trades

ClosedInstrumentRiskPlan R:RResultHold
Oct 3, 02:11SOL long0.77%1:2.4+2.60R13.8h
Oct 2, 08:04DOGE long0.97%1:2.5−0.72R3.8h
Sep 30, 12:09SUI short1.07%1:2.1−0.85R1.2d
Sep 22, 22:53SUI long1.03%1:2.8−0.94R9.1h
Sep 7, 20:44DOGE short1.07%1:1.9−0.64R18.7h
Sep 6, 10:17SUI long0.76%1:1.9−0.90R8.3h
Aug 28, 18:54SUI long0.99%1:2.4+2.23R7.5h
Aug 27, 12:51DOGE long1.17%1:2.3−0.72R1.7h
Aug 19, 00:50ETH short0.73%1:2.7+2.39R8.6h
Aug 11, 02:05DOGE short1.15%1:2.9+2.38R22.9h
Aug 9, 19:20DOGE long0.98%1:2.2−0.78R0.6h
Aug 2, 19:07SUI short0.80%1:2.6+1.96R7.5h

Performance statistics

Based on 173 trades over 560 days. Metric set v1.4 · recomputable from raw exchange data.

Trailing returns

Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows

Period1W1M3M6MYTD1YAll
Strategy+1.9%−6.0%+4.6%+16.4%+23.4%+21.2%+57.4%
Followers+1.9%−6.1%+4.6%+16.2%+23.2%+20.9%+56.7%
BTC+0.4%+1.0%+11.3%+71.2%+55.7%+69.5%+94.2%
Excess vs BTC+1.5%−7.0%−6.6%−54.8%−32.3%−48.3%−36.9%

Returns

Return 1m
−6.0%
Return 3m
+4.6%
Return 12m
+21.2%
Return since start
+57.4%
CAGR
+34.4%

Risk

Max drawdown
9.6%
Volatility (ann.)
13.7%
Downside deviation
9.1%
Ulcer index
3.71%
VaR / CVaR 95% (daily)
1.07% / 1.48%
VaR / CVaR 99% (daily)
1.86% / 2.37%
Longest time under water
148 days
Max / avg leverage
4.4x / 2x
Top-3 trades share of PnL
22%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
2.22
Sortino
3.37
Calmar
3.58
Recovery factor
5.98
Probabilistic Sharpe (PSR)
1.00
Omega ratio
1.35
Gain-to-pain
0.35

Trades

Trades
173
Win rate
43%
Payoff ratio
2.21
Profit factor
1.67
Expectancy
5 bps
Tail ratio
3.1
Avg holding time
18 h

Consistency

Profitable months
75%
Equity curve R²
0.91
Longest losing streak
7 days
Skew / kurtosis
-0.27 / 3.8
Consistency score
53/100

Benchmark (vs BTC)

Beta
0.10
Alpha (ann.)
+24.8%
Correlation / R²
0.39 / 0.15
Up / down capture
12% / 6%
Tracking error
51.4%
Information ratio
-0.54

Strategy vs BTC

Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time

Daily return pair365 daysFit · β0.10

BTC daily return →

Rolling 90-day beta & correlation
Oct 6, 2026Beta0.10Correlation0.32

Rolling risk-adjusted performance

90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced

Oct 6, 2026Sharpe 90d1.25Volatility 90d15.7%
Volatility (ann.)

Return distribution

Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days

Up daysDown daysNormal fitVaR 95%−1.07%

Worst drawdowns

The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took

#DepthPeakTroughRecoveredDeclineRecovery
1
−9.6%
Aug 30, 2026Sep 28, 2026Ongoing29 d—
2
−8.4%
Nov 2, 2025Dec 31, 2025Mar 31, 202659 d90 d
3
−7.4%
Apr 3, 2026May 4, 2026May 27, 202631 d23 d
4
−4.1%
May 29, 2025Jun 22, 2025Jul 19, 202524 d27 d
5
−3.1%
Jul 25, 2026Jul 31, 2026Aug 12, 20266 d12 d

Day-of-week profile

Average daily return and share of up days by weekday

Share of up days
44%
57%
59%
49%
56%
54%
61%

Exposure

Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits

Gross exposure91% of equityPeak120%
Average share of exposure
  • SOL49% · 40.5%
  • ETH22% · 18%
  • DOGE22% · 17.8%
  • SUI8% · 6.6%

Performance by instrument

Share of net PnL

Seat price30 days
31.18USDC

Price rises as seats fill · locked for your term

Copy up to $3,000

1
Base price
30.00 USDC / 30d
Term factor (30/30)^0.9
× 1.000
Occupancy factor 1 + 0.5 × 28.1%²
× 1.039
Total
31.18 USDC
55/196 seats141 free
  • Held in escrow until Oct 31, 2026
  • Released to the trader if the Seat Contract is kept
  • Refunded to you if the contract is breached
Trade Seats on the Seat Market→ Simulate with your Risk Engine→

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from
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