Last 367 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +109.6R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 205 | 162 |
| Win rate | 52% | 51% |
| Expectancy | +0.30R | +0.30R |
| Total R | +60.8R | +48.8R |
| Equity PnL | +66.8% | +49.6% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 00:57 | SUI long | 1.11% | 1:1.9 | −0.67R | 3.3h |
| Oct 3, 22:00 | ETH short | 1.01% | 1:1.4 | +0.80R | 4.9h |
| Oct 3, 15:04 | ETH short | 0.89% | 1:1.4 | +1.46R | 3.4h |
| Oct 2, 16:24 | ETH long | 1.08% | 1:1.7 | −0.96R | 5.9h |
| Sep 28, 18:56 | ETH short | 1.16% | 1:1.8 | +1.13R | 3.5h |
| Sep 27, 17:21 | ETH long | 1.02% | 1:1.4 | −1.01R | 3.3d |
| Sep 24, 18:39 | SUI long | 1.13% | 1:1.9 | −0.82R | 10.9h |
| Sep 21, 16:01 | ETH long | 1.19% | 1:1.9 | +1.86R | 0.7h |
| Sep 20, 04:09 | SUI long | 1.07% | 1:1.5 | +1.64R | 2.3h |
| Sep 18, 23:50 | ETH long | 1.19% | 1:1.9 | +1.87R | 4.1h |
| Sep 15, 06:25 | SUI short | 0.81% | 1:1.5 | +1.53R | 0.9h |
| Sep 14, 12:12 | SUI long | 1.10% | 1:1.9 | −1.05R | 6.9h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +0.6% | +3.5% | +5.1% | +14.0% | +21.6% | +21.5% | +24.8% |
| Followers | +0.6% | +3.5% | +4.9% | +13.6% | +20.9% | +20.6% | +23.6% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +125.5% |
| Excess vs BTC | +0.2% | +2.5% | −6.2% | −57.2% | −34.1% | −48.0% | −100.6% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −13.1% | Sep 19, 2025 | Nov 23, 2025 | Jan 20, 2026 | 65 d | 58 d |
| 2 | −10.4% | Apr 1, 2026 | May 23, 2026 | Jun 23, 2026 | 52 d | 31 d |
| 3 | −6.8% | Feb 1, 2026 | Feb 23, 2026 | Mar 22, 2026 | 22 d | 27 d |
| 4 | −5.7% | Jul 27, 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 2, 2026 | 45 d | 22 d |
| 5 | −4.8% | Jun 23, 2025 | Jul 17, 2025 | Aug 5, 2025 | 24 d | 19 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL