Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +6.4R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 18 | 12 |
| Win rate | 83% | 83% |
| Expectancy | +0.21R | +0.22R |
| Total R | +3.8R | +2.7R |
| Equity PnL | +1.4% | +1.0% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 02:15 | BTC long | 0.44% | 1:0.4 | +0.28R | 3.9d |
| Sep 21, 09:18 | BTC short | 0.31% | 1:0.5 | +0.53R | 11.4d |
| Sep 12, 20:17 | ETH long | 0.35% | 1:0.4 | −1.01R | 16.2d |
| Aug 19, 08:11 | SOL long | 0.39% | 1:0.6 | +0.61R | 10.4d |
| Jun 22, 10:47 | BTC long | 0.47% | 1:0.6 | −0.98R | 5.2d |
| Jun 13, 17:05 | SOL long | 0.36% | 1:0.5 | +0.52R | 33.5d |
| Jun 11, 10:56 | BTC short | 0.45% | 1:0.5 | +0.55R | 1.1d |
| Jun 2, 16:47 | SOL short | 0.35% | 1:0.5 | +0.48R | 15.4d |
| May 17, 02:04 | ETH short | 0.41% | 1:0.5 | +0.38R | 33.9d |
| May 10, 16:05 | ETH long | 0.33% | 1:0.5 | −0.92R | 5.9d |
| May 6, 12:02 | ETH short | 0.33% | 1:0.4 | +0.43R | 21.2d |
| May 4, 20:45 | ETH long | 0.49% | 1:0.4 | +0.35R | 26.0d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −0.3% | +0.5% | +3.4% | +4.1% | +8.7% | +10.7% | +9.9% |
| Followers | −0.3% | +0.5% | +3.4% | +4.1% | +8.7% | +10.7% | +9.9% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +66.2% |
| Excess vs BTC | −0.7% | −0.5% | −7.9% | −67.1% | −47.0% | −58.8% | −56.3% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.4% | Apr 24, 2026 | May 18, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | 24 d | 75 d |
| 2 | −2.7% | Dec 7, 2025 | Dec 25, 2025 | Jan 25, 2026 | 18 d | 31 d |
| 3 | −2.5% | Jan 26, 2026 | Feb 7, 2026 | Feb 24, 2026 | 12 d | 17 d |
| 4 | −2.0% | Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 9, 2026 | Aug 28, 2026 | 6 d | 19 d |
| 5 | −1.7% | Feb 24, 2026 | Feb 28, 2026 | Mar 5, 2026 | 4 d | 5 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL