Last 66 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +21.9R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 35 | 31 |
| Win rate | 86% | 97% |
| Expectancy | +0.25R | +0.43R |
| Total R | +8.7R | +13.2R |
| Equity PnL | +4.6% | +6.9% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 10:15 | ETH long | 0.43% | 1:0.5 | +0.32R | 3.6d |
| Sep 25, 22:12 | ETH long | 0.63% | 1:0.6 | +0.55R | 2.7d |
| Sep 18, 17:20 | ETH short | 0.59% | 1:0.6 | +0.55R | 0.1h |
| Sep 18, 10:52 | ETH long | 0.53% | 1:0.5 | −0.90R | 2.9d |
| Sep 5, 15:51 | ETH short | 0.58% | 1:0.6 | +0.66R | 1.0d |
| Aug 13, 18:21 | ETH long | 0.46% | 1:0.5 | −0.97R | 2.7d |
| Aug 10, 02:36 | ETH long | 0.53% | 1:0.6 | +0.49R | 1.9d |
| Aug 5, 10:04 | ETH short | 0.45% | 1:0.5 | +0.59R | 2.5d |
| Aug 4, 14:42 | ETH long | 0.38% | 1:0.6 | +0.46R | 2.1d |
| Jul 29, 12:00 | ETH long | 0.40% | 1:0.5 | −1.00R | 1.1d |
| Jul 26, 02:05 | ETH short | 0.62% | 1:0.5 | +0.33R | 1.5d |
| Jul 9, 20:11 | ETH short | 0.58% | 1:0.5 | −1.00R | 10.8d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +4.6% | +7.6% | +6.2% | +7.0% | +8.5% | +15.5% | +19.8% |
| Followers | +4.6% | +7.6% | +6.2% | +7.0% | +8.4% | +15.4% | +19.7% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +112.2% |
| Excess vs BTC | +4.2% | +6.6% | −5.1% | −64.2% | −47.2% | −54.0% | −92.4% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.0% | Aug 6, 2026 | Sep 6, 2026 | Oct 3, 2026 | 31 d | 27 d |
| 2 | −4.5% | Apr 19, 2026 | May 6, 2026 | Jul 22, 2026 | 17 d | 77 d |
| 3 | −4.3% | Jan 22, 2026 | Feb 6, 2026 | Apr 15, 2026 | 15 d | 68 d |
| 4 | −3.7% | Jul 29, 2025 | Aug 15, 2025 | Sep 1, 2025 | 17 d | 17 d |
| 5 | −3.5% | May 11, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Jun 15, 2025 | 17 d | 18 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL