Last 400 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +76.8R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 247 | 153 |
| Win rate | 67% | 56% |
| Expectancy | +0.26R | +0.08R |
| Total R | +65.0R | +11.7R |
| Equity PnL | +50.6% | +7.8% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 02:38 | ETH long | 0.87% | 1:1.1 | +1.09R | 0.6h |
| Oct 6, 20:19 | BTC short | 0.96% | 1:0.9 | −0.77R | 0.5h |
| Oct 6, 11:29 | ETH short | 0.79% | 1:0.8 | +0.58R | 1.4h |
| Oct 6, 19:10 | ETH short | 0.59% | 1:1.0 | −0.74R | 1.0h |
| Oct 6, 02:47 | ETH long | 0.66% | 1:1.0 | +0.96R | 0.7h |
| Oct 6, 08:21 | ETH short | 0.80% | 1:0.8 | −0.80R | 0.7h |
| Oct 6, 02:49 | ETH short | 0.61% | 1:1.0 | +0.89R | 0.3h |
| Oct 6, 21:13 | ETH long | 0.85% | 1:0.8 | −0.70R | 0.1h |
| Oct 6, 04:53 | BTC short | 0.96% | 1:0.9 | −1.01R | 1.1h |
| Oct 6, 16:25 | ETH long | 0.81% | 1:0.8 | +0.66R | 1.0h |
| Oct 6, 06:55 | BTC short | 0.93% | 1:1.1 | −0.84R | 0.4h |
| Oct 6, 10:52 | ETH long | 0.81% | 1:0.7 | +0.53R | 0.1h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −1.7% | −4.6% | −5.1% | +0.1% | +6.8% | +17.1% | +62.0% |
| Followers | −2.0% | −5.9% | −8.8% | −7.7% | −5.8% | −0.6% | +20.3% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +281.6% |
| Excess vs BTC | −2.1% | −5.6% | −16.3% | −71.1% | −48.9% | −52.4% | −219.5% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.4% | May 29, 2026 | Oct 4, 2026 | Ongoing | 128 d | — |
| 2 | −5.3% | Dec 26, 2025 | Jan 10, 2026 | Mar 6, 2026 | 15 d | 55 d |
| 3 | −3.6% | Sep 2, 2025 | Sep 21, 2025 | Sep 29, 2025 | 19 d | 8 d |
| 4 | −3.4% | Jul 13, 2025 | Jul 28, 2025 | Aug 10, 2025 | 15 d | 13 d |
| 5 | −3.3% | Feb 1, 2025 | Feb 11, 2025 | Mar 2, 2025 | 10 d | 19 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL