Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total −2.2R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 12 | 18 |
| Win rate | 50% | 28% |
| Expectancy | +0.21R | −0.26R |
| Total R | +2.5R | −4.6R |
| Equity PnL | +1.0% | −2.6% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 21:43 | BTC short | 0.84% | 1:1.9 | −1.28R | 2.2d |
| Oct 1, 17:48 | ETH short | 0.66% | 1:1.7 | −1.01R | 0.7h |
| Sep 18, 16:24 | ETH short | 0.73% | 1:1.9 | −0.78R | 1.7d |
| Sep 6, 23:15 | BTC long | 0.70% | 1:1.3 | +1.30R | 4.0d |
| Aug 18, 08:14 | SOL short | 0.87% | 1:1.4 | −0.89R | 7.9h |
| Aug 12, 13:46 | XRP long | 0.69% | 1:1.8 | +1.38R | 1.4d |
| Aug 8, 12:35 | ETH long | 0.83% | 1:2.0 | −1.02R | 1.9d |
| Aug 6, 22:21 | BTC long | 1.09% | 1:2.0 | −0.78R | 1.0d |
| Jul 30, 12:56 | ETH short | 0.66% | 1:2.0 | −1.00R | 17.1h |
| Jul 4, 04:09 | BTC short | 1.04% | 1:1.9 | +1.05R | 1.2d |
| Jul 4, 00:36 | SOL long | 0.74% | 1:1.4 | +1.17R | 1.7d |
| Jun 28, 03:39 | ETH long | 0.99% | 1:1.4 | −1.02R | 3.3d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.4% | +16.5% | +18.6% | +37.0% | +39.6% | +53.3% |
| Followers | +1.4% | +16.5% | +18.6% | +37.0% | +39.5% | +53.2% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +94.0% |
| Excess vs BTC | +1.0% | +15.5% | +7.3% | −34.2% | −16.1% | −40.7% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −20.7% | Jan 30, 2026 | May 23, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | 113 d | 38 d |
| 2 | −14.2% | Jul 16, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | Sep 19, 2026 | 30 d | 35 d |
| 3 | −4.4% | Jan 10, 2026 | Jan 14, 2026 | Jan 18, 2026 | 4 d | 4 d |
| 4 | −2.7% | Jan 19, 2026 | Jan 21, 2026 | Jan 26, 2026 | 2 d | 5 d |
| 5 | −2.4% | Jan 27, 2026 | Jan 28, 2026 | Jan 30, 2026 | 1 d | 2 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL