Last 204 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +73.4R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 113 | 91 |
| Win rate | 80% | 81% |
| Expectancy | +0.36R | +0.36R |
| Total R | +40.6R | +32.9R |
| Equity PnL | +16.9% | +14.0% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 00:22 | ETH short | 0.47% | 1:0.9 | +0.51R | 6.5d |
| Oct 5, 09:49 | ETH short | 0.42% | 1:0.7 | −0.81R | 32.7d |
| Oct 4, 20:28 | ETH long | 0.36% | 1:0.9 | +0.89R | 7.0d |
| Oct 1, 13:15 | BTC long | 0.54% | 1:0.8 | +0.84R | 10.8d |
| Sep 30, 20:22 | ETH long | 0.38% | 1:0.7 | +0.56R | 3.2d |
| Sep 30, 08:12 | ETH long | 0.49% | 1:0.8 | +0.73R | 5.2d |
| Sep 29, 01:37 | ETH long | 0.50% | 1:0.8 | +0.81R | 19.2d |
| Sep 28, 06:06 | ETH long | 0.44% | 1:0.7 | +0.79R | 13.9h |
| Sep 27, 06:10 | BTC long | 0.51% | 1:0.9 | +0.52R | 2.9d |
| Sep 26, 20:33 | BTC long | 0.41% | 1:0.7 | +0.62R | 1.2d |
| Sep 20, 08:06 | ETH short | 0.47% | 1:0.7 | +0.56R | 13.6d |
| Sep 17, 06:21 | ETH long | 0.41% | 1:0.6 | +0.48R | 13.3d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.9% | −0.3% | +4.1% | +7.3% | +9.2% | +11.8% | +17.0% |
| Followers | +1.9% | −0.3% | +4.1% | +7.3% | +9.1% | +11.7% | +16.9% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +119.0% |
| Excess vs BTC | +1.5% | −1.3% | −7.1% | −63.9% | −46.6% | −57.7% | −102.0% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.1% | Mar 12, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | May 31, 2026 | 71 d | 9 d |
| 2 | −2.9% | Nov 13, 2025 | Dec 6, 2025 | Jan 19, 2026 | 23 d | 44 d |
| 3 | −2.9% | Sep 4, 2026 | Sep 16, 2026 | Ongoing | 12 d | — |
| 4 | −1.6% | Jan 19, 2026 | Feb 5, 2026 | Feb 10, 2026 | 17 d | 5 d |
| 5 | −1.6% | Aug 12, 2026 | Aug 27, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | 15 d | 8 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL