Last 400 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +85.4R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 229 | 171 |
| Win rate | 63% | 61% |
| Expectancy | +0.23R | +0.19R |
| Total R | +52.2R | +33.2R |
| Equity PnL | +24.9% | +16.5% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 13:21 | EURUSD long | 0.52% | 1:0.8 | +0.48R | 7.6h |
| Oct 6, 08:25 | GBPUSD short | 0.44% | 1:1.0 | +0.80R | 5.5h |
| Oct 6, 07:05 | GBPUSD long | 0.41% | 1:1.1 | +0.75R | 0.7h |
| Oct 6, 14:49 | GBPUSD short | 0.54% | 1:1.0 | −0.61R | 6.7h |
| Oct 6, 13:55 | GBPUSD short | 0.49% | 1:1.2 | +0.98R | 1.0h |
| Oct 5, 14:04 | EURUSD short | 0.57% | 1:0.9 | −0.79R | 1.6h |
| Oct 5, 09:35 | GBPUSD long | 0.52% | 1:0.9 | −0.95R | 3.7h |
| Oct 5, 07:23 | EURUSD short | 0.39% | 1:0.9 | −0.77R | 12.7h |
| Oct 5, 12:03 | EURGBP long | 0.55% | 1:0.8 | +0.67R | 4.0h |
| Oct 2, 12:10 | GBPUSD long | 0.54% | 1:1.1 | +0.91R | 0.4h |
| Oct 2, 15:20 | EURGBP long | 0.44% | 1:1.0 | −0.64R | 7.3h |
| Oct 2, 11:39 | EURUSD long | 0.62% | 1:0.8 | −0.80R | 3.0h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +0.4% | −0.2% | +0.6% | +11.7% | +20.2% | +17.1% | +30.8% |
| Followers | +0.4% | −0.3% | +0.4% | +11.2% | +19.5% | +16.2% | +29.0% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +232.7% |
| Excess vs BTC | +0.0% | −1.2% | −10.7% | −59.5% | −35.6% | −52.4% | −201.9% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.8% | Nov 8, 2025 | Dec 29, 2025 | Jan 26, 2026 | 51 d | 28 d |
| 2 | −5.1% | Aug 21, 2026 | Sep 20, 2026 | Ongoing | 30 d | — |
| 3 | −4.5% | Feb 1, 2025 | Apr 21, 2025 | Jun 8, 2025 | 79 d | 48 d |
| 4 | −3.5% | Dec 5, 2024 | Dec 28, 2024 | Jan 19, 2025 | 23 d | 22 d |
| 5 | −3.2% | Mar 5, 2026 | Mar 21, 2026 | Apr 18, 2026 | 16 d | 28 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL