Last 400 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +67.1R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 231 | 169 |
| Win rate | 45% | 38% |
| Expectancy | +0.22R | +0.10R |
| Total R | +50.2R | +16.8R |
| Equity PnL | +35.4% | +10.4% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 11:38 | GBPUSD short | 0.66% | 1:2.1 | −0.75R | 14.6h |
| Oct 5, 14:09 | GBPUSD short | 0.85% | 1:1.8 | −0.99R | 8.7h |
| Oct 2, 10:02 | GBPUSD short | 0.75% | 1:1.5 | −0.67R | 8.0h |
| Oct 1, 13:32 | GBPUSD short | 0.71% | 1:2.3 | +1.88R | 8.5h |
| Oct 1, 09:49 | GBPUSD long | 0.58% | 1:1.8 | +1.68R | 17.7h |
| Oct 1, 12:04 | GBPUSD long | 0.83% | 1:2.1 | −1.04R | 1.1d |
| Sep 30, 16:55 | GBPUSD short | 0.71% | 1:2.2 | −0.82R | 1.3h |
| Sep 29, 12:37 | GBPUSD long | 0.57% | 1:1.8 | −0.89R | 4.6h |
| Sep 28, 11:22 | GBPUSD long | 0.87% | 1:2.4 | −0.88R | 6.9h |
| Sep 25, 11:54 | GBPUSD short | 0.72% | 1:2.3 | +1.83R | 3.9h |
| Sep 25, 16:32 | GBPUSD short | 0.89% | 1:1.7 | +1.11R | 11.3h |
| Sep 24, 12:18 | GBPUSD long | 0.78% | 1:1.9 | +1.38R | 4.1h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −0.6% | +2.9% | +11.0% | +11.6% | +19.8% | +26.6% | +56.5% |
| Followers | −0.6% | +2.8% | +10.9% | +11.4% | +19.5% | +26.2% | +55.5% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +175.6% |
| Excess vs BTC | −1.0% | +1.9% | −0.3% | −59.6% | −36.0% | −42.9% | −119.0% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −16.2% | Jun 13, 2025 | Jul 25, 2025 | Dec 8, 2025 | 42 d | 136 d |
| 2 | −11.4% | Jun 4, 2026 | Jul 6, 2026 | Ongoing | 32 d | — |
| 3 | −7.7% | Mar 6, 2026 | Mar 15, 2026 | Mar 31, 2026 | 9 d | 16 d |
| 4 | −7.3% | Mar 20, 2025 | Apr 27, 2025 | May 15, 2025 | 38 d | 18 d |
| 5 | −5.1% | Dec 8, 2025 | Dec 17, 2025 | Jan 3, 2026 | 9 d | 17 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL