Last 400 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +119.7R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 230 | 170 |
| Win rate | 45% | 49% |
| Expectancy | +0.26R | +0.36R |
| Total R | +59.2R | +60.4R |
| Equity PnL | +36.0% | +34.3% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 16:56 | EURGBP long | 0.44% | 1:1.9 | +1.57R | 6.4h |
| Oct 5, 13:56 | EURGBP short | 0.65% | 1:1.9 | −0.96R | 9.8h |
| Oct 5, 09:11 | EURGBP long | 0.49% | 1:1.7 | −1.33R | 10.5h |
| Oct 5, 09:56 | EURGBP long | 0.61% | 1:1.6 | −0.88R | 3.1h |
| Oct 5, 11:37 | GBPUSD long | 0.60% | 1:1.7 | +1.04R | 6.3h |
| Oct 2, 07:21 | EURGBP short | 0.45% | 1:1.9 | +1.71R | 2.5h |
| Oct 2, 07:07 | GBPUSD long | 0.49% | 1:2.0 | −0.75R | 6.2h |
| Oct 2, 13:34 | GBPUSD short | 0.70% | 1:2.0 | +1.76R | 0.7h |
| Sep 30, 07:19 | EURGBP long | 0.65% | 1:2.1 | −0.72R | 15.5h |
| Sep 29, 12:15 | GBPUSD long | 0.62% | 1:1.8 | +1.36R | 17.1h |
| Sep 29, 12:16 | GBPUSD long | 0.65% | 1:1.8 | −0.97R | 2.5h |
| Sep 28, 07:08 | GBPUSD long | 0.66% | 1:2.4 | −0.96R | 4.6h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +0.7% | +0.6% | +3.9% | +12.4% | +16.0% | +14.0% | +17.2% |
| Followers | +0.7% | +0.5% | +3.8% | +12.2% | +15.7% | +13.6% | +16.2% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +165.1% |
| Excess vs BTC | +0.3% | −0.4% | −7.4% | −58.8% | −39.7% | −55.5% | −147.9% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.8% | Mar 20, 2025 | Sep 16, 2025 | May 1, 2026 | 180 d | 227 d |
| 2 | −6.2% | Dec 30, 2024 | Jan 22, 2025 | Mar 13, 2025 | 23 d | 50 d |
| 3 | −3.6% | Aug 16, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | Ongoing | 38 d | — |
| 4 | −3.1% | Jul 28, 2024 | Sep 13, 2024 | Nov 21, 2024 | 47 d | 69 d |
| 5 | −2.9% | May 5, 2026 | May 23, 2026 | Jun 16, 2026 | 18 d | 24 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL