Last 215 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +107.3R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 129 | 86 |
| Win rate | 55% | 40% |
| Expectancy | +0.65R | +0.27R |
| Total R | +84.1R | +23.2R |
| Equity PnL | +46.5% | +15.0% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 16:30 | EURUSD long | 0.44% | 1:2.7 | −0.80R | 1.1d |
| Oct 5, 13:35 | EURUSD long | 0.70% | 1:2.4 | −0.87R | 2.3h |
| Oct 5, 14:32 | EURUSD long | 0.71% | 1:2.1 | +1.31R | 2.1h |
| Oct 1, 09:07 | EURUSD short | 0.56% | 1:1.9 | −0.98R | 2.0h |
| Sep 23, 08:23 | EURUSD long | 0.48% | 1:1.9 | +1.37R | 7.3h |
| Sep 22, 11:00 | GBPUSD short | 0.67% | 1:2.5 | +2.09R | 6.9h |
| Sep 21, 10:59 | GBPUSD short | 0.55% | 1:1.8 | −0.87R | 1.9h |
| Sep 18, 08:34 | EURUSD long | 0.56% | 1:1.8 | −1.00R | 1.6h |
| Sep 17, 16:32 | EURUSD short | 0.66% | 1:1.9 | +1.21R | 3.9h |
| Sep 14, 13:31 | GBPUSD long | 0.52% | 1:2.2 | −0.83R | 7.5h |
| Sep 14, 08:22 | EURGBP short | 0.56% | 1:2.0 | −0.71R | 1.3h |
| Sep 11, 12:30 | EURUSD long | 0.54% | 1:2.3 | +2.21R | 2.1h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +0.2% | +1.5% | +4.9% | +11.7% | +6.5% | +14.8% | +21.7% |
| Followers | +0.1% | +1.5% | +4.9% | +11.7% | +6.4% | +14.7% | +21.5% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +80.9% |
| Excess vs BTC | −0.2% | +0.5% | −6.4% | −59.5% | −49.2% | −54.7% | −59.2% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.2% | Jan 14, 2026 | Apr 11, 2026 | Jun 13, 2026 | 87 d | 63 d |
| 2 | −5.0% | Aug 25, 2025 | Sep 21, 2025 | Nov 5, 2025 | 27 d | 45 d |
| 3 | −2.3% | Jul 10, 2026 | Jul 23, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | 13 d | 23 d |
| 4 | −1.8% | Dec 9, 2025 | Dec 13, 2025 | Jan 14, 2026 | 4 d | 32 d |
| 5 | −1.7% | Jun 14, 2025 | Jun 22, 2025 | Jul 5, 2025 | 8 d | 13 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL