Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +17.5R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 16 | 14 |
| Win rate | 63% | 43% |
| Expectancy | +0.72R | +0.43R |
| Total R | +11.5R | +6.0R |
| Equity PnL | +7.6% | +4.2% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 15:40 | NAS100 short | 0.78% | 1:1.6 | −1.05R | 10.5d |
| Jul 24, 21:45 | US500 short | 0.64% | 1:2.1 | +2.44R | 8.7d |
| Jul 20, 01:49 | JP225 long | 0.65% | 1:1.8 | −0.94R | 27.4d |
| Jul 13, 20:55 | JP225 long | 0.73% | 1:2.2 | +2.07R | 8.3d |
| Jul 6, 11:24 | US500 long | 0.82% | 1:1.8 | −0.95R | 21.0d |
| Jun 26, 15:01 | JP225 long | 0.82% | 1:1.9 | +1.87R | 21.1d |
| Jun 15, 22:41 | US500 short | 0.75% | 1:1.8 | +1.88R | 43.9d |
| Jun 11, 01:56 | NAS100 long | 0.54% | 1:2.3 | +1.40R | 1.2d |
| Mar 19, 04:48 | JP225 short | 0.71% | 1:2.2 | −0.89R | 16.2d |
| Mar 13, 22:11 | NAS100 short | 0.61% | 1:1.9 | −0.69R | 4.7d |
| Mar 6, 03:24 | JP225 short | 0.59% | 1:2.3 | +2.63R | 6.1d |
| Mar 5, 06:32 | NAS100 long | 0.53% | 1:1.8 | −0.85R | 16.0d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +2.6% | +15.2% | +35.8% | +29.6% | +31.2% | +34.5% | +134.1% |
| Followers | +2.6% | +15.2% | +35.8% | +29.6% | +31.1% | +34.5% | +134.0% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +228.6% |
| Excess vs BTC | +2.2% | +14.2% | +24.5% | −41.6% | −24.6% | −35.0% | −94.5% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −15.2% | Mar 10, 2026 | Jul 28, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | 140 d | 18 d |
| 2 | −8.1% | Dec 23, 2025 | Jan 14, 2026 | Mar 6, 2026 | 22 d | 51 d |
| 3 | −6.3% | Jun 17, 2025 | Jun 26, 2025 | Jul 1, 2025 | 9 d | 5 d |
| 4 | −4.9% | Nov 9, 2025 | Nov 17, 2025 | Dec 8, 2025 | 8 d | 21 d |
| 5 | −4.6% | Apr 4, 2025 | Apr 9, 2025 | Apr 24, 2025 | 5 d | 15 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL