Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +14.3R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 16 | 14 |
| Win rate | 38% | 64% |
| Expectancy | +0.16R | +0.84R |
| Total R | +2.5R | +11.8R |
| Equity PnL | +2.0% | +8.1% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 22:07 | NAS100 long | 0.55% | 1:2.4 | −0.96R | 7.6d |
| Sep 4, 04:18 | US500 long | 0.71% | 1:2.1 | +1.39R | 1.6d |
| Aug 21, 10:47 | JP225 long | 0.79% | 1:2.8 | −0.96R | 1.1d |
| May 22, 22:37 | NAS100 long | 0.52% | 1:2.0 | −0.95R | 18.8d |
| May 18, 10:10 | NAS100 long | 0.69% | 1:2.6 | −0.69R | 9.0d |
| May 15, 18:32 | NAS100 long | 0.57% | 1:2.4 | +2.13R | 7.6d |
| Mar 18, 15:39 | US500 short | 0.73% | 1:2.5 | +2.14R | 24.4d |
| Mar 6, 08:20 | NAS100 short | 0.60% | 1:2.0 | +1.84R | 11.4d |
| Jan 16, 15:12 | NAS100 long | 0.77% | 1:2.4 | +1.79R | 8.6d |
| Jan 2, 07:01 | NAS100 long | 0.82% | 1:3.0 | −0.74R | 3.3d |
| Dec 16, 04:33 | US500 short | 0.82% | 1:2.2 | +1.51R | 14.4d |
| Dec 5, 03:12 | NAS100 short | 0.63% | 1:2.2 | +1.27R | 36.9d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −0.6% | +1.3% | +5.0% | +8.7% | +12.4% | +17.4% | +17.7% |
| Followers | −0.6% | +1.3% | +5.0% | +8.6% | +12.4% | +17.4% | +17.7% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +195.5% |
| Excess vs BTC | −0.9% | +0.3% | −6.3% | −62.6% | −43.3% | −52.1% | −177.8% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.4% | Nov 5, 2024 | Feb 17, 2025 | Dec 15, 2025 | 104 d | 301 d |
| 2 | −2.7% | Feb 17, 2026 | Mar 14, 2026 | Mar 29, 2026 | 25 d | 15 d |
| 3 | −1.6% | Apr 4, 2026 | Apr 25, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | 21 d | 33 d |
| 4 | −1.2% | Sep 8, 2024 | Sep 18, 2024 | Oct 2, 2024 | 10 d | 14 d |
| 5 | −1.1% | Jul 17, 2026 | Jul 27, 2026 | Aug 15, 2026 | 10 d | 19 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL