Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +27.5R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 9 | 21 |
| Win rate | 67% | 57% |
| Expectancy | +1.18R | +0.80R |
| Total R | +10.7R | +16.8R |
| Equity PnL | +12.3% | +20.0% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 13:22 | INJ long | 1.23% | 1:1.9 | +1.90R | 8.3d |
| Sep 30, 05:51 | INJ short | 1.10% | 1:2.8 | −0.96R | 16.2d |
| Sep 29, 08:22 | ARB short | 0.92% | 1:2.6 | +2.89R | 3.5d |
| Sep 21, 21:54 | AVAX short | 0.93% | 1:2.5 | −1.05R | 2.5d |
| Sep 17, 23:39 | INJ long | 1.38% | 1:2.6 | +2.45R | 9.9h |
| Sep 16, 04:08 | AVAX short | 1.31% | 1:2.2 | −0.67R | 9.5d |
| Aug 31, 05:58 | AVAX long | 1.05% | 1:2.1 | +2.31R | 6.1d |
| Aug 29, 03:40 | INJ short | 1.12% | 1:2.6 | +2.51R | 7.4d |
| Aug 18, 01:12 | INJ short | 0.99% | 1:2.3 | +1.34R | 13.9d |
| Aug 14, 05:14 | ARB long | 1.34% | 1:2.3 | +1.91R | 9.0d |
| Aug 11, 21:20 | ARB long | 1.20% | 1:2.6 | −0.78R | 3.5d |
| Jul 28, 20:23 | ARB short | 1.21% | 1:2.0 | +2.32R | 1.7d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −8.8% | −8.6% | −23.8% | −9.6% | −9.6% |
| Followers | −8.8% | −8.6% | −23.8% | −9.7% | −9.7% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +58.0% | +58.0% |
| Excess vs BTC | −9.2% | −9.6% | −35.1% | −67.6% | −67.6% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −27.5% | Jun 28, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | Ongoing | 100 d | — |
| 2 | −9.5% | May 30, 2026 | Jun 8, 2026 | Jun 15, 2026 | 9 d | 7 d |
| 3 | −8.4% | Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 21, 2026 | Jun 23, 2026 | 4 d | 2 d |
| 4 | −7.2% | Apr 20, 2026 | May 2, 2026 | May 24, 2026 | 12 d | 22 d |
| 5 | −2.1% | Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 | 1 d | 1 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL