Last 400 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +82.9R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 225 | 175 |
| Win rate | 64% | 67% |
| Expectancy | +0.19R | +0.23R |
| Total R | +42.6R | +40.3R |
| Equity PnL | +23.4% | +21.3% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 08:38 | SOL short | 0.64% | 1:0.8 | +0.80R | 0.5h |
| Oct 6, 09:56 | BTC short | 0.64% | 1:0.8 | −1.05R | 0.6h |
| Oct 6, 19:26 | BTC long | 0.58% | 1:1.1 | −0.98R | 0.1h |
| Oct 6, 12:24 | BTC long | 0.54% | 1:0.8 | +0.62R | 0.2h |
| Oct 6, 20:40 | ETH short | 0.68% | 1:0.8 | +0.77R | 0.4h |
| Oct 6, 02:44 | BTC short | 0.62% | 1:0.8 | +0.92R | 0.5h |
| Oct 6, 15:45 | BTC long | 0.65% | 1:0.9 | −0.93R | 0.2h |
| Oct 6, 12:58 | BTC long | 0.43% | 1:0.8 | +0.52R | 0.1h |
| Oct 5, 10:50 | ETH short | 0.59% | 1:0.8 | +0.80R | 0.5h |
| Oct 5, 23:59 | BTC long | 0.44% | 1:0.9 | +0.53R | 0.6h |
| Oct 5, 16:24 | BTC short | 0.66% | 1:0.8 | +0.54R | 0.7h |
| Oct 5, 22:16 | ETH long | 0.58% | 1:0.9 | −1.44R | 0.2h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.8% | +3.2% | +4.8% | +6.1% | +15.2% | +15.2% |
| Followers | +1.5% | +2.0% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.9% | −0.4% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +70.3% |
| Excess vs BTC | +1.5% | +2.2% | −6.4% | −65.1% | −40.5% | −55.1% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.6% | Jun 4, 2026 | Jul 23, 2026 | Sep 28, 2026 | 49 d | 67 d |
| 2 | −2.6% | May 2, 2026 | May 19, 2026 | Jun 4, 2026 | 17 d | 16 d |
| 3 | −2.2% | Oct 30, 2025 | Nov 10, 2025 | Nov 30, 2025 | 11 d | 20 d |
| 4 | −2.2% | Dec 18, 2025 | Jan 5, 2026 | Jan 13, 2026 | 18 d | 8 d |
| 5 | −1.8% | Dec 1, 2025 | Dec 8, 2025 | Dec 15, 2025 | 7 d | 7 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL