Last 260 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +65.2R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 150 | 110 |
| Win rate | 37% | 37% |
| Expectancy | +0.26R | +0.24R |
| Total R | +38.6R | +26.7R |
| Equity PnL | +43.2% | +31.7% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 05:57 | DOGE long | 1.11% | 1:2.8 | −1.00R | 22.0h |
| Oct 3, 22:08 | DOGE short | 0.97% | 1:2.2 | −1.01R | 13.3h |
| Oct 3, 23:24 | PEPE long | 0.92% | 1:2.8 | −0.95R | 1.4d |
| Oct 3, 13:26 | DOGE short | 1.36% | 1:2.2 | +1.39R | 1.8d |
| Oct 3, 07:50 | PEPE long | 1.37% | 1:3.0 | +3.31R | 2.1h |
| Sep 28, 15:47 | PEPE long | 0.91% | 1:3.0 | +3.23R | 3.1d |
| Sep 27, 06:07 | WIF long | 1.20% | 1:2.7 | −0.84R | 2.2d |
| Sep 24, 01:17 | DOGE long | 1.10% | 1:2.4 | −0.80R | 4.1d |
| Sep 23, 15:41 | DOGE long | 1.14% | 1:3.1 | −0.66R | 1.8d |
| Sep 23, 04:50 | BONK short | 1.42% | 1:3.1 | +2.53R | 1.8d |
| Sep 20, 10:06 | PEPE long | 1.15% | 1:2.1 | +1.83R | 1.6d |
| Sep 19, 22:36 | PEPE short | 1.27% | 1:2.7 | +2.75R | 2.3d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −1.7% | +5.7% | +53.3% | +98.7% | +94.6% | +95.4% |
| Followers | −1.7% | +5.6% | +53.0% | +97.8% | +93.2% | +93.9% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +88.5% |
| Excess vs BTC | −2.1% | +4.7% | +42.0% | +27.5% | +38.9% | +6.9% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −48.0% | Feb 1, 2026 | May 16, 2026 | Jul 14, 2026 | 104 d | 59 d |
| 2 | −24.8% | Jul 15, 2026 | Aug 9, 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 | 25 d | 20 d |
| 3 | −18.5% | Sep 6, 2026 | Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 29, 2026 | 17 d | 6 d |
| 4 | −11.3% | Dec 20, 2025 | Dec 27, 2025 | Jan 1, 2026 | 7 d | 5 d |
| 5 | −11.0% | Jan 9, 2026 | Jan 19, 2026 | Jan 25, 2026 | 10 d | 6 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL