Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +25.3R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 22 | 8 |
| Win rate | 68% | 100% |
| Expectancy | +0.66R | +1.34R |
| Total R | +14.6R | +10.7R |
| Equity PnL | +10.9% | +8.3% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 03:23 | NVDA long | 0.93% | 1:1.4 | +1.23R | 7.6d |
| Aug 19, 21:12 | META long | 0.93% | 1:1.6 | +1.85R | 8.0d |
| Aug 7, 17:23 | AVGO short | 0.76% | 1:1.7 | +1.13R | 15.5d |
| Jun 9, 22:32 | NVDA long | 0.59% | 1:1.3 | +1.11R | 14.3d |
| Jun 1, 12:21 | NVDA short | 0.76% | 1:1.4 | +1.18R | 2.8d |
| May 19, 15:23 | NFLX long | 0.90% | 1:1.6 | +1.17R | 5.2d |
| May 7, 09:44 | META short | 0.85% | 1:1.4 | +0.91R | 9.0d |
| Apr 3, 21:17 | AVGO long | 0.91% | 1:1.8 | +1.36R | 11.6h |
| Mar 17, 15:23 | NFLX long | 0.82% | 1:1.7 | −0.95R | 2.9h |
| Mar 16, 07:01 | AVGO long | 0.80% | 1:1.7 | −1.28R | 8.9d |
| Jan 16, 20:06 | META short | 0.93% | 1:1.7 | +1.02R | 2.7d |
| Dec 11, 21:54 | NVDA long | 0.64% | 1:1.3 | +1.34R | 1.3d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.1% | +0.4% | −6.0% | +1.6% | +22.7% | +29.3% | +62.7% |
| Followers | +1.1% | +0.4% | −6.0% | +1.6% | +22.6% | +29.3% | +62.6% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +157.0% |
| Excess vs BTC | +0.7% | −0.5% | −17.3% | −69.6% | −33.1% | −40.2% | −94.4% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −17.4% | Jul 5, 2025 | Sep 17, 2025 | Nov 5, 2025 | 74 d | 49 d |
| 2 | −16.1% | Jul 4, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 | Ongoing | 84 d | — |
| 3 | −13.1% | Nov 18, 2025 | Dec 20, 2025 | Jan 10, 2026 | 32 d | 21 d |
| 4 | −12.9% | Apr 21, 2025 | May 19, 2025 | Jun 13, 2025 | 28 d | 25 d |
| 5 | −12.6% | Dec 14, 2024 | Feb 14, 2025 | Apr 9, 2025 | 62 d | 54 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL