Last 78 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +18.2R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 51 | 27 |
| Win rate | 61% | 41% |
| Expectancy | +0.36R | −0.00R |
| Total R | +18.2R | −0.1R |
| Equity PnL | +15.4% | −0.2% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 14:45 | NFLX long | 0.97% | 1:1.2 | +0.82R | 2.1d |
| Sep 22, 01:21 | META short | 0.65% | 1:1.3 | −0.80R | 2.8d |
| Sep 14, 10:33 | META long | 1.05% | 1:1.1 | +0.71R | 5.1d |
| Sep 11, 04:56 | NFLX long | 0.79% | 1:1.7 | +1.43R | 3.8d |
| Jul 17, 08:56 | META long | 0.88% | 1:1.5 | −0.73R | 1.9d |
| Jul 6, 22:31 | NFLX long | 0.72% | 1:1.7 | −0.94R | 2.1d |
| Jun 23, 23:36 | NFLX long | 0.89% | 1:1.7 | +1.60R | 2.4d |
| Apr 27, 23:02 | NFLX short | 0.70% | 1:1.3 | −0.99R | 2.1d |
| Apr 20, 15:48 | NFLX long | 0.97% | 1:1.3 | −0.67R | 20.8h |
| Apr 14, 09:22 | META long | 0.76% | 1:1.4 | +0.80R | 9.7h |
| Apr 14, 13:45 | META long | 0.73% | 1:1.4 | −0.74R | 7.8d |
| Apr 10, 11:10 | NFLX long | 0.76% | 1:1.5 | −0.68R | 4.0d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −0.4% | +0.1% | +15.3% | +18.8% | +26.2% | +44.4% | +66.0% |
| Followers | −0.4% | +0.1% | +15.2% | +18.8% | +26.1% | +44.3% | +65.8% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +151.9% |
| Excess vs BTC | −0.7% | −0.9% | +4.0% | −52.4% | −29.6% | −25.1% | −85.9% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −17.3% | Feb 1, 2026 | May 18, 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 | 106 d | 84 d |
| 2 | −15.8% | Aug 6, 2024 | Nov 20, 2024 | May 16, 2025 | 106 d | 177 d |
| 3 | −10.7% | May 18, 2025 | Jul 7, 2025 | Sep 14, 2025 | 50 d | 69 d |
| 4 | −5.4% | Aug 25, 2026 | Sep 13, 2026 | Ongoing | 19 d | — |
| 5 | −4.6% | Oct 30, 2025 | Nov 17, 2025 | Dec 1, 2025 | 18 d | 14 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL