Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +7.3R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 18 | 12 |
| Win rate | 33% | 67% |
| Expectancy | −0.14R | +0.82R |
| Total R | −2.6R | +9.8R |
| Equity PnL | −1.2% | +10.6% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 03:55 | NEAR long | 1.32% | 1:2.2 | −0.83R | 10.3d |
| Aug 14, 00:07 | SOL short | 1.06% | 1:2.0 | −0.76R | 3.8d |
| Apr 27, 22:24 | INJ long | 0.87% | 1:2.1 | −0.81R | 26.3d |
| Mar 19, 13:39 | SOL short | 1.12% | 1:1.6 | −0.64R | 7.5d |
| Feb 6, 23:56 | SOL short | 1.05% | 1:2.0 | +1.73R | 5.0d |
| Feb 3, 23:14 | SOL short | 1.03% | 1:1.8 | −0.70R | 24.5d |
| Jan 30, 09:32 | NEAR long | 0.88% | 1:1.7 | +0.95R | 4.6d |
| Jan 23, 20:39 | INJ long | 1.08% | 1:2.2 | −0.88R | 2.9d |
| Jan 19, 19:50 | NEAR short | 0.89% | 1:2.0 | +1.16R | 18.8d |
| Jan 16, 17:32 | INJ long | 1.05% | 1:1.7 | −0.91R | 22.2d |
| Dec 11, 02:29 | NEAR long | 1.23% | 1:1.9 | +1.05R | 9.4h |
| Nov 22, 13:23 | TIA short | 1.20% | 1:2.0 | +2.15R | 4.9d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −1.2% | +3.3% | +13.5% | +31.9% | +36.6% | +36.4% | +191.2% |
| Followers | −1.2% | +3.3% | +13.5% | +31.8% | +36.6% | +36.3% | +191.0% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +223.0% |
| Excess vs BTC | −1.6% | +2.3% | +2.2% | −39.3% | −19.1% | −33.1% | −31.7% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −24.0% | Sep 19, 2025 | Nov 24, 2025 | Jan 25, 2026 | 66 d | 62 d |
| 2 | −19.2% | Apr 1, 2026 | May 14, 2026 | Jun 16, 2026 | 43 d | 33 d |
| 3 | −16.2% | Aug 3, 2026 | Sep 13, 2026 | Ongoing | 41 d | — |
| 4 | −14.9% | May 26, 2025 | Jun 11, 2025 | Jul 6, 2025 | 16 d | 25 d |
| 5 | −13.8% | Jan 31, 2026 | Mar 16, 2026 | Apr 1, 2026 | 44 d | 16 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL