Last 400 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +85.3R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 229 | 171 |
| Win rate | 52% | 60% |
| Expectancy | +0.13R | +0.32R |
| Total R | +30.6R | +54.7R |
| Equity PnL | +19.5% | +49.5% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 07:27 | NAS100 long | 0.62% | 1:1.3 | −0.62R | 0.1h |
| Oct 6, 05:48 | NAS100 long | 0.92% | 1:1.3 | −0.90R | 0.1h |
| Oct 6, 00:13 | NAS100 long | 0.72% | 1:1.2 | +1.01R | 0.8h |
| Oct 5, 15:11 | NAS100 long | 0.74% | 1:1.0 | +0.86R | 0.1h |
| Oct 5, 01:22 | NAS100 short | 0.70% | 1:1.4 | −0.94R | 0.8h |
| Oct 5, 06:54 | NAS100 short | 0.98% | 1:1.1 | +1.02R | 1.1h |
| Oct 5, 14:35 | NAS100 short | 0.67% | 1:1.4 | +0.99R | 0.5h |
| Oct 5, 13:39 | NAS100 long | 0.77% | 1:1.0 | −0.92R | 0.1h |
| Oct 5, 10:13 | NAS100 short | 0.59% | 1:1.2 | −1.02R | 0.1h |
| Oct 5, 18:44 | NAS100 short | 0.95% | 1:1.5 | +1.17R | 0.1h |
| Oct 5, 01:20 | NAS100 short | 0.96% | 1:1.1 | +1.00R | 0.4h |
| Oct 5, 14:42 | NAS100 short | 0.94% | 1:1.0 | −0.74R | 0.3h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −1.9% | −2.6% | +6.2% | +12.5% | +18.3% | +18.3% |
| Followers | −2.0% | −2.9% | +5.5% | +10.9% | +15.9% | +15.9% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +27.1% | +27.1% |
| Excess vs BTC | −2.3% | −3.6% | −5.1% | −58.7% | −8.8% | −8.8% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.8% | Mar 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | Jun 24, 2026 | 61 d | 33 d |
| 2 | −6.4% | Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 5, 2026 | Ongoing | 19 d | — |
| 3 | −6.0% | Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 17, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | 16 d | 12 d |
| 4 | −3.9% | Jan 26, 2026 | Jan 30, 2026 | Feb 18, 2026 | 4 d | 19 d |
| 5 | −3.1% | Aug 21, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | 14 d | 4 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL