Last 31 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +8.3R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 19 | 12 |
| Win rate | 79% | 83% |
| Expectancy | +0.26R | +0.29R |
| Total R | +4.8R | +3.4R |
| Equity PnL | +3.1% | +2.2% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 20:19 | MA short | 0.56% | 1:0.6 | +0.48R | 11.5d |
| Sep 14, 23:07 | MA short | 0.58% | 1:0.5 | +0.57R | 7.9d |
| Sep 9, 01:48 | MA short | 0.60% | 1:0.7 | +0.62R | 2.2d |
| Sep 3, 16:44 | MA long | 0.59% | 1:0.6 | −0.62R | 1.6d |
| Aug 31, 12:06 | MA long | 0.65% | 1:0.6 | +0.54R | 11.8d |
| Aug 28, 11:15 | MA short | 0.57% | 1:0.7 | +0.48R | 21.8h |
| Jul 13, 07:46 | MA long | 0.77% | 1:0.5 | +0.53R | 3.0d |
| Jun 17, 01:57 | MA long | 0.49% | 1:0.7 | +0.43R | 1.3d |
| May 13, 13:08 | MA long | 0.63% | 1:0.7 | −0.75R | 5.5d |
| Apr 13, 11:55 | MA short | 0.58% | 1:0.6 | −0.66R | 7.9d |
| Apr 9, 15:23 | MA short | 0.70% | 1:0.6 | +0.64R | 18.5d |
| Mar 26, 11:51 | MA short | 0.58% | 1:0.6 | +0.40R | 16.6d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.4% | +4.6% | +2.2% | +14.4% | +8.8% | +21.7% | +86.6% |
| Followers | +1.4% | +4.6% | +2.2% | +14.4% | +8.8% | +21.7% | +86.6% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +144.2% |
| Excess vs BTC | +1.0% | +3.6% | −9.0% | −56.8% | −46.9% | −47.8% | −57.5% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −11.0% | Mar 5, 2026 | May 23, 2026 | Jun 26, 2026 | 79 d | 34 d |
| 2 | −10.5% | Jul 31, 2026 | Aug 23, 2026 | Ongoing | 23 d | — |
| 3 | −8.4% | Feb 3, 2025 | Apr 3, 2025 | May 13, 2025 | 59 d | 40 d |
| 4 | −6.0% | Sep 24, 2024 | Sep 27, 2024 | Oct 5, 2024 | 3 d | 8 d |
| 5 | −5.6% | Nov 24, 2025 | Dec 5, 2025 | Dec 21, 2025 | 11 d | 16 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL