Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +9.6R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 19 | 11 |
| Win rate | 84% | 91% |
| Expectancy | +0.30R | +0.36R |
| Total R | +5.6R | +4.0R |
| Equity PnL | +2.8% | +1.9% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 04:30 | BTC short | 0.60% | 1:0.6 | +0.50R | 2.3d |
| Sep 11, 23:44 | BTC long | 0.41% | 1:0.6 | +0.54R | 0.8h |
| Aug 30, 21:52 | SOL short | 0.39% | 1:0.5 | +0.48R | 5.0d |
| Aug 12, 19:57 | SOL long | 0.37% | 1:0.5 | +0.39R | 1.9h |
| Jul 25, 05:39 | BTC long | 0.52% | 1:0.6 | +0.34R | 5.0d |
| Jun 29, 22:04 | SOL short | 0.56% | 1:0.6 | +0.56R | 10.6d |
| Jun 29, 05:53 | BTC long | 0.53% | 1:0.4 | +0.32R | 1.7d |
| Jun 18, 05:40 | SOL long | 0.52% | 1:0.6 | +0.50R | 10.6d |
| Apr 25, 01:14 | SOL long | 0.38% | 1:0.6 | −0.94R | 3.1d |
| Apr 10, 23:47 | SOL long | 0.50% | 1:0.4 | −0.68R | 10.1d |
| Jan 28, 23:09 | SOL long | 0.42% | 1:0.5 | +0.49R | 6.0d |
| Dec 30, 10:37 | BTC long | 0.39% | 1:0.5 | +0.32R | 9.3d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −1.3% | −0.1% | +3.6% | +5.8% | +14.7% | +25.8% | +47.3% |
| Followers | −1.3% | −0.1% | +3.6% | +5.8% | +14.7% | +25.8% | +47.3% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +253.2% |
| Excess vs BTC | −1.7% | −1.1% | −7.7% | −65.4% | −41.0% | −43.7% | −205.9% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.3% | May 28, 2026 | Jul 6, 2026 | Sep 19, 2026 | 39 d | 75 d |
| 2 | −6.3% | Jun 14, 2025 | Sep 2, 2025 | Nov 5, 2025 | 80 d | 64 d |
| 3 | −3.6% | Apr 25, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | May 6, 2026 | 5 d | 6 d |
| 4 | −3.1% | Dec 22, 2024 | Jan 4, 2025 | Jan 10, 2025 | 13 d | 6 d |
| 5 | −2.9% | Feb 22, 2025 | Mar 7, 2025 | Mar 19, 2025 | 13 d | 12 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL