Last 31 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +7.8R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 17 | 14 |
| Win rate | 82% | 86% |
| Expectancy | +0.28R | +0.22R |
| Total R | +4.8R | +3.0R |
| Equity PnL | +2.0% | +1.2% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 02:49 | SOL short | 0.45% | 1:0.6 | −1.04R | 4.0d |
| Sep 14, 09:34 | SOL short | 0.41% | 1:0.6 | +0.46R | 1.3d |
| Sep 5, 22:34 | SOL long | 0.33% | 1:0.6 | −0.76R | 20.5h |
| Sep 4, 23:46 | ETH short | 0.43% | 1:0.5 | +0.43R | 5.7d |
| Aug 14, 16:42 | SOL short | 0.43% | 1:0.6 | +0.40R | 1.6d |
| Aug 7, 17:31 | SOL short | 0.38% | 1:0.5 | +0.47R | 22.5h |
| Jul 18, 12:32 | SOL short | 0.36% | 1:0.5 | −0.87R | 4.3d |
| Jul 15, 14:52 | ETH long | 0.34% | 1:0.6 | +0.52R | 4.0h |
| Jul 13, 15:41 | SOL short | 0.35% | 1:0.6 | +0.54R | 2.3d |
| Jul 2, 21:32 | SOL long | 0.34% | 1:0.5 | +0.39R | 2.4d |
| May 29, 10:15 | ETH long | 0.35% | 1:0.5 | +0.53R | 6.0d |
| May 23, 16:06 | ETH long | 0.45% | 1:0.6 | +0.67R | 8.6d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +0.9% | +0.5% | +1.1% | +8.5% | +10.2% | +10.8% |
| Followers | +0.9% | +0.5% | +1.1% | +8.4% | +10.1% | +10.8% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +62.1% |
| Excess vs BTC | +0.5% | −0.4% | −10.2% | −62.7% | −45.6% | −51.3% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.5% | Feb 23, 2026 | Apr 14, 2026 | Jun 7, 2026 | 50 d | 54 d |
| 2 | −1.9% | Sep 13, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | Ongoing | 9 d | — |
| 3 | −1.0% | Jul 14, 2026 | Jul 25, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 | 11 d | 6 d |
| 4 | −1.0% | Aug 24, 2026 | Sep 5, 2026 | Sep 13, 2026 | 12 d | 8 d |
| 5 | −0.8% | Feb 10, 2026 | Feb 18, 2026 | Feb 23, 2026 | 8 d | 5 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL