Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +13.8R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 18 | 12 |
| Win rate | 94% | 100% |
| Expectancy | +0.46R | +0.46R |
| Total R | +8.3R | +5.5R |
| Equity PnL | +4.0% | +2.5% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 07:52 | BTC short | 0.39% | 1:0.5 | +0.58R | 25.4d |
| Jun 30, 05:55 | SOL short | 0.51% | 1:0.6 | +0.54R | 2.8d |
| Jun 26, 02:24 | BTC short | 0.39% | 1:0.6 | +0.46R | 19.4d |
| May 11, 15:51 | BTC long | 0.57% | 1:0.6 | +0.67R | 20.6d |
| Mar 27, 20:56 | SOL long | 0.37% | 1:0.5 | +0.42R | 17.6h |
| Mar 8, 00:08 | SOL long | 0.39% | 1:0.6 | −0.63R | 2.4h |
| Feb 17, 07:45 | SOL short | 0.37% | 1:0.4 | +0.32R | 11.4d |
| Feb 5, 08:28 | SOL short | 0.45% | 1:0.6 | +0.37R | 24.8d |
| Jan 24, 14:35 | BTC long | 0.42% | 1:0.6 | +0.62R | 1.7d |
| Jan 8, 06:59 | SOL long | 0.39% | 1:0.5 | +0.56R | 4.7d |
| Jan 5, 13:31 | SOL short | 0.43% | 1:0.6 | +0.42R | 16.0d |
| Jan 5, 03:21 | BTC long | 0.47% | 1:0.6 | +0.63R | 9.2d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +0.2% | +2.6% | +7.7% | +14.4% | +13.9% | +14.2% | +49.4% |
| Followers | +0.2% | +2.6% | +7.7% | +14.4% | +13.9% | +14.2% | +49.3% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +172.3% |
| Excess vs BTC | −0.2% | +1.6% | −3.6% | −56.8% | −41.8% | −55.3% | −122.9% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.7% | Jun 22, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | 37 d | 21 d |
| 2 | −4.1% | Dec 25, 2025 | Mar 28, 2026 | Apr 15, 2026 | 93 d | 18 d |
| 3 | −3.7% | Feb 4, 2025 | Feb 17, 2025 | Mar 6, 2025 | 13 d | 17 d |
| 4 | −3.7% | Nov 3, 2024 | Dec 3, 2024 | Dec 22, 2024 | 30 d | 19 d |
| 5 | −3.6% | May 15, 2025 | Jul 18, 2025 | Aug 3, 2025 | 64 d | 16 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL