Last 268 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +103.9R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 150 | 118 |
| Win rate | 56% | 47% |
| Expectancy | +0.50R | +0.24R |
| Total R | +75.6R | +28.4R |
| Equity PnL | +52.4% | +20.4% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 06:06 | AAPL long | 0.65% | 1:1.4 | −0.64R | 5.4d |
| Sep 30, 12:20 | NVDA short | 0.83% | 1:1.9 | +1.82R | 3.6d |
| Sep 30, 22:37 | AAPL short | 0.67% | 1:2.0 | −0.91R | 11.1d |
| Sep 29, 14:44 | AAPL short | 0.70% | 1:2.0 | −0.62R | 8.3d |
| Sep 29, 05:15 | MSFT short | 0.78% | 1:1.5 | −0.79R | 1.3d |
| Sep 29, 23:57 | NVDA short | 0.69% | 1:2.0 | −0.72R | 8.1d |
| Sep 25, 03:18 | AMZN short | 0.73% | 1:2.0 | −0.91R | 4.8d |
| Sep 25, 21:37 | NVDA short | 0.86% | 1:1.7 | +1.01R | 1.3d |
| Sep 25, 17:48 | NVDA short | 0.75% | 1:1.5 | −0.83R | 2.8d |
| Sep 23, 02:59 | AMZN long | 0.77% | 1:2.1 | +1.65R | 1.5d |
| Sep 18, 15:00 | NVDA short | 0.64% | 1:2.0 | +2.08R | 4.5d |
| Sep 18, 22:14 | NVDA short | 0.81% | 1:1.5 | −1.38R | 16.9d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.6% | +6.7% | +9.8% | +17.6% | +19.3% | +26.5% | +24.4% |
| Followers | +1.6% | +6.7% | +9.7% | +17.5% | +19.1% | +26.2% | +24.0% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +108.8% |
| Excess vs BTC | +1.2% | +5.7% | −1.5% | −53.6% | −36.4% | −43.0% | −84.5% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −10.9% | Jul 27, 2025 | Nov 9, 2025 | Jan 8, 2026 | 105 d | 60 d |
| 2 | −4.3% | Feb 26, 2026 | Mar 4, 2026 | Apr 20, 2026 | 6 d | 47 d |
| 3 | −4.0% | Apr 29, 2026 | May 5, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | 6 d | 29 d |
| 4 | −2.7% | Aug 30, 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 | Sep 21, 2026 | 8 d | 14 d |
| 5 | −2.0% | Jul 28, 2026 | Aug 6, 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | 9 d | 6 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL