Last 400 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +21.7R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 224 | 176 |
| Win rate | 58% | 67% |
| Expectancy | −0.00R | +0.12R |
| Total R | −0.2R | +21.8R |
| Equity PnL | +1.9% | +12.1% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 11:25 | EURUSD short | 0.64% | 1:0.7 | +0.36R | 1.3h |
| Oct 5, 12:00 | EURUSD short | 0.48% | 1:0.7 | +0.41R | 12.6h |
| Oct 5, 09:19 | AUDUSD long | 0.44% | 1:0.8 | +0.80R | 5.0h |
| Oct 5, 08:45 | AUDUSD long | 0.43% | 1:0.7 | +0.79R | 1.4h |
| Oct 2, 13:06 | EURUSD short | 0.49% | 1:0.7 | −0.90R | 0.6h |
| Oct 2, 09:44 | EURUSD short | 0.40% | 1:0.8 | −0.66R | 0.7h |
| Oct 2, 08:42 | EURUSD long | 0.39% | 1:0.7 | −0.90R | 2.1h |
| Oct 1, 14:41 | USDCAD short | 0.43% | 1:0.8 | −1.02R | 4.4h |
| Oct 1, 15:03 | EURUSD long | 0.54% | 1:0.8 | +0.53R | 4.2h |
| Sep 30, 16:31 | AUDUSD long | 0.42% | 1:0.8 | −0.83R | 4.4h |
| Sep 29, 07:10 | USDCAD short | 0.57% | 1:0.7 | −0.67R | 2.7h |
| Sep 29, 14:14 | USDCAD long | 0.39% | 1:0.8 | +0.63R | 9.5h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.2% | +4.0% | +3.2% | +4.6% | +7.8% | +16.2% | +28.2% |
| Followers | +1.2% | +3.9% | +3.1% | +4.4% | +7.5% | +15.7% | +26.9% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +186.1% |
| Excess vs BTC | +0.8% | +3.0% | −8.1% | −66.6% | −47.9% | −53.3% | −157.9% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.0% | Aug 10, 2025 | Oct 7, 2025 | Dec 5, 2025 | 58 d | 59 d |
| 2 | −5.6% | Feb 1, 2025 | Mar 13, 2025 | Apr 1, 2025 | 40 d | 19 d |
| 3 | −5.1% | Nov 6, 2024 | Dec 1, 2024 | Dec 21, 2024 | 25 d | 20 d |
| 4 | −4.8% | Dec 24, 2025 | Mar 15, 2026 | Apr 4, 2026 | 81 d | 20 d |
| 5 | −4.1% | May 17, 2025 | Jun 20, 2025 | Jul 25, 2025 | 34 d | 35 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL