Last 159 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +21.6R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 99 | 60 |
| Win rate | 67% | 55% |
| Expectancy | +0.21R | +0.01R |
| Total R | +21.0R | +0.6R |
| Equity PnL | +12.7% | −1.1% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 15:53 | USDCHF short | 0.76% | 1:0.8 | +0.62R | 17.9h |
| Oct 5, 10:18 | AUDUSD long | 0.71% | 1:0.7 | −0.91R | 8.1h |
| Oct 1, 10:46 | USDCHF long | 0.54% | 1:0.8 | −0.99R | 15.9h |
| Sep 29, 07:41 | USDCHF long | 0.81% | 1:0.9 | +1.04R | 1.9h |
| Sep 29, 08:09 | EURUSD long | 0.69% | 1:0.7 | +0.70R | 3.6h |
| Sep 28, 11:26 | EURUSD short | 0.51% | 1:0.8 | −0.86R | 1.4d |
| Sep 25, 09:23 | USDCHF long | 0.74% | 1:0.8 | +0.66R | 8.5h |
| Sep 25, 15:40 | USDCHF long | 0.77% | 1:0.9 | +0.48R | 5.0h |
| Sep 25, 11:38 | EURUSD long | 0.52% | 1:0.8 | −0.95R | 1.5d |
| Sep 21, 10:31 | AUDUSD long | 0.81% | 1:0.7 | +0.74R | 1.1h |
| Sep 21, 07:17 | EURUSD long | 0.69% | 1:0.9 | +0.64R | 1.0h |
| Sep 16, 14:41 | EURUSD long | 0.53% | 1:1.0 | +1.06R | 18.4h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +2.5% | +1.6% | +10.7% | +8.9% | +8.8% | +8.8% |
| Followers | +2.5% | +1.6% | +10.6% | +8.7% | +8.7% | +8.7% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +35.2% | +35.2% |
| Excess vs BTC | +2.2% | +0.6% | −0.6% | −62.3% | −26.4% | −26.4% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −10.0% | May 19, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 | Jul 18, 2026 | 31 d | 29 d |
| 2 | −6.6% | Apr 21, 2026 | May 2, 2026 | May 19, 2026 | 11 d | 17 d |
| 3 | −6.0% | Sep 13, 2026 | Oct 3, 2026 | Ongoing | 20 d | — |
| 4 | −5.6% | Jul 19, 2026 | Aug 6, 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | 18 d | 6 d |
| 5 | −4.8% | Aug 14, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 | 7 d | 18 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL