Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +10.7R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 16 | 14 |
| Win rate | 69% | 64% |
| Expectancy | +0.40R | +0.30R |
| Total R | +6.4R | +4.3R |
| Equity PnL | +5.3% | +3.2% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 13:53 | USDJPY long | 0.86% | 1:1.1 | +1.14R | 23.6d |
| Sep 21, 14:07 | MXNJPY long | 0.74% | 1:1.2 | +0.99R | 7.1d |
| Sep 14, 09:50 | USDJPY long | 0.90% | 1:1.4 | +1.06R | 9.9d |
| Sep 11, 11:00 | NZDJPY short | 0.83% | 1:1.1 | −1.02R | 10.2d |
| Sep 3, 15:58 | NZDJPY long | 0.60% | 1:1.3 | +1.10R | 21.2d |
| Sep 2, 12:53 | USDJPY long | 0.84% | 1:1.0 | +0.61R | 2.4d |
| Sep 1, 14:33 | USDJPY short | 0.76% | 1:1.3 | +0.90R | 3.6d |
| Aug 27, 15:55 | USDJPY long | 0.76% | 1:1.2 | −0.77R | 3.4d |
| Aug 26, 15:14 | USDJPY long | 0.94% | 1:1.0 | +0.79R | 3.2d |
| Aug 21, 12:55 | AUDJPY long | 0.78% | 1:1.0 | +1.13R | 8.8d |
| Aug 19, 11:10 | AUDJPY short | 0.79% | 1:0.9 | +0.63R | 9.2d |
| Aug 17, 10:46 | AUDJPY short | 0.81% | 1:1.0 | +0.79R | 13.3d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +1.2% | +19.5% | +7.2% | +5.6% | +5.6% |
| Followers | +1.2% | +19.5% | +7.2% | +5.6% | +5.6% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +19.6% | +19.6% |
| Excess vs BTC | +0.9% | +18.5% | −4.1% | −14.0% | −14.0% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −16.6% | Jun 25, 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 | Sep 27, 2026 | 61 d | 33 d |
| 2 | −0.8% | Sep 30, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | Oct 3, 2026 | 1 d | 2 d |
| 3 | −0.2% | Oct 4, 2026 | Oct 5, 2026 | Ongoing | 1 d | — |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL