Last 400 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +200.0R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 237 | 163 |
| Win rate | 38% | 46% |
| Expectancy | +0.37R | +0.69R |
| Total R | +87.6R | +112.4R |
| Equity PnL | +59.4% | +73.6% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 20:12 | BTC long | 0.71% | 1:3.4 | +2.15R | 1.6d |
| Sep 28, 20:25 | BTC short | 0.79% | 1:2.7 | −0.86R | 5.0h |
| Sep 28, 08:38 | BTC long | 0.65% | 1:2.5 | +1.39R | 16.5h |
| Sep 25, 02:19 | ETH short | 0.50% | 1:2.4 | −0.97R | 7.2d |
| Sep 20, 21:32 | SOL long | 0.53% | 1:2.7 | −1.05R | 3.3d |
| Sep 19, 14:27 | SOL long | 0.79% | 1:2.7 | −0.80R | 61.7d |
| Sep 15, 09:55 | SOL long | 0.74% | 1:2.6 | −0.74R | 17.0d |
| Sep 8, 20:40 | ETH long | 0.55% | 1:2.8 | +2.54R | 5.1d |
| Sep 7, 23:57 | ETH long | 0.63% | 1:2.6 | +2.01R | 2.9d |
| Sep 3, 17:34 | BTC long | 0.66% | 1:3.1 | +3.04R | 5.4d |
| Sep 1, 12:28 | SOL long | 0.58% | 1:2.5 | +1.72R | 5.7d |
| Aug 31, 22:39 | BTC short | 0.73% | 1:2.8 | +2.10R | 11.6d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −1.7% | −1.6% | +5.7% | +18.3% | +25.8% | +29.7% | +30.8% |
| Followers | −1.7% | −1.6% | +5.6% | +18.1% | +25.4% | +29.2% | +29.8% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +232.7% |
| Excess vs BTC | −2.1% | −2.6% | −5.6% | −52.9% | −29.9% | −39.8% | −202.0% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −11.2% | Feb 23, 2025 | Nov 17, 2025 | Jan 25, 2026 | 267 d | 69 d |
| 2 | −8.3% | Mar 30, 2026 | Apr 23, 2026 | Jun 4, 2026 | 24 d | 42 d |
| 3 | −4.8% | Feb 25, 2026 | Mar 4, 2026 | Mar 29, 2026 | 7 d | 25 d |
| 4 | −4.5% | Nov 23, 2024 | Dec 21, 2024 | Jan 15, 2025 | 28 d | 25 d |
| 5 | −3.6% | Jun 13, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 28, 2026 | 6 d | 9 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL