Last 30 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +17.0R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 22 | 8 |
| Win rate | 50% | 50% |
| Expectancy | +0.51R | +0.72R |
| Total R | +11.2R | +5.8R |
| Equity PnL | +8.3% | +5.1% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 18:15 | XRP long | 0.68% | 1:2.5 | +2.06R | 1.8d |
| Sep 25, 20:19 | XRP long | 0.92% | 1:2.0 | +1.18R | 7.3d |
| Aug 15, 19:49 | XRP long | 0.82% | 1:1.8 | −0.73R | 2.8d |
| Jul 27, 19:18 | SOL long | 0.90% | 1:2.1 | −0.71R | 8.9d |
| Jul 13, 09:28 | XRP long | 0.65% | 1:2.5 | +2.32R | 12.1h |
| Jul 3, 05:52 | ETH long | 0.68% | 1:2.1 | −0.99R | 1.6d |
| May 31, 13:56 | SOL long | 0.73% | 1:2.6 | −0.86R | 2.4d |
| May 28, 22:20 | XRP long | 0.85% | 1:2.6 | −0.75R | 8.9h |
| May 16, 20:19 | SOL long | 0.87% | 1:2.1 | +2.38R | 6.1d |
| Apr 2, 10:14 | XRP long | 0.72% | 1:2.2 | +2.13R | 2.0d |
| Jan 29, 14:09 | XRP long | 0.69% | 1:2.5 | −0.93R | 8.0d |
| Jan 27, 17:30 | SOL long | 0.70% | 1:2.0 | +1.36R | 39.4d |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | −2.1% | −2.0% | +31.9% | +30.6% | +36.8% | +49.5% | +60.6% |
| Followers | −2.1% | −2.0% | +31.9% | +30.6% | +36.7% | +49.4% | +60.5% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +71.2% | +55.7% | +69.5% | +141.6% |
| Excess vs BTC | −2.5% | −3.0% | +20.6% | −40.6% | −18.9% | −20.0% | −81.0% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −17.2% | Feb 7, 2026 | Jun 5, 2026 | Jul 15, 2026 | 118 d | 40 d |
| 2 | −11.8% | Aug 9, 2025 | Sep 21, 2025 | Oct 27, 2025 | 43 d | 36 d |
| 3 | −11.1% | Oct 31, 2025 | Dec 9, 2025 | Jan 4, 2026 | 39 d | 26 d |
| 4 | −9.4% | Jan 10, 2026 | Jan 15, 2026 | Jan 25, 2026 | 5 d | 10 d |
| 5 | −8.8% | Aug 26, 2026 | Sep 14, 2026 | Ongoing | 19 d | — |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL