Last 88 closed trades · risk measured at the initial stop
How many trades ended at each multiple of initial risk
Trade-by-trade equity in R units · total +18.0R
% of equity at risk on each trade, with the average line
Total R by day of week or close hour (UTC)
| Long | Short | |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 44 | 44 |
| Win rate | 50% | 41% |
| Expectancy | +0.30R | +0.11R |
| Total R | +13.2R | +4.8R |
| Equity PnL | +8.5% | +4.0% |
| Closed | Instrument | Risk | Plan R:R | Result | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 15:26 | USDJPY short | 0.53% | 1:1.4 | −0.99R | 7.7h |
| Oct 5, 08:50 | USDJPY short | 0.60% | 1:1.8 | −0.65R | 0.5h |
| Oct 2, 14:33 | USDJPY short | 0.70% | 1:1.6 | +1.39R | 1.5h |
| Oct 2, 15:24 | USDJPY long | 0.70% | 1:1.8 | −0.96R | 7.7h |
| Oct 2, 07:57 | USDJPY long | 0.77% | 1:1.4 | −0.77R | 2.9h |
| Oct 1, 12:26 | USDJPY long | 0.69% | 1:1.7 | +1.48R | 3.5h |
| Sep 30, 13:40 | USDJPY short | 0.76% | 1:1.4 | +0.93R | 4.1h |
| Sep 30, 13:10 | USDJPY long | 0.66% | 1:2.1 | −0.77R | 8.6h |
| Sep 29, 07:16 | USDJPY long | 0.58% | 1:1.6 | −0.86R | 4.8h |
| Sep 28, 13:18 | USDJPY short | 0.74% | 1:1.8 | +1.79R | 5.1h |
| Sep 28, 15:54 | USDJPY long | 0.77% | 1:1.7 | +1.35R | 9.6h |
| Sep 25, 14:51 | USDJPY short | 0.74% | 1:1.8 | −0.88R | 4.2h |
Strategy NAV, realized follower results after costs, and BTC over the same windows
| Period | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | +0.3% | +3.0% | +5.3% | +5.2% | +5.2% |
| Followers | +0.3% | +3.0% | +5.3% | +5.1% | +5.1% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +1.0% | +11.3% | +13.0% | +13.0% |
| Excess vs BTC | −0.1% | +2.0% | −6.0% | −7.8% | −7.8% |
Daily return pairs with the regression fit (slope = beta), and how beta and correlation change over time
BTC daily return →
Needs at least 90 days of history.
90-day rolling Sharpe ratio and annualized volatility, synced
Needs at least 90 days of history.
Daily returns vs a fitted normal curve — bars beyond the curve are fat-tail days
The five deepest peak-to-trough episodes and how long recovery took
| # | Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Decline | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.9% | Aug 20, 2026 | Sep 6, 2026 | Oct 4, 2026 | 17 d | 28 d |
| 2 | −0.8% | Jul 26, 2026 | Jul 29, 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 | 3 d | 3 d |
| 3 | −0.3% | Aug 16, 2026 | Aug 19, 2026 | Aug 20, 2026 | 3 d | 1 d |
| 4 | −0.3% | Jul 7, 2026 | Jul 8, 2026 | Jul 11, 2026 | 1 d | 3 d |
| 5 | −0.2% | Aug 11, 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | Aug 13, 2026 | 1 d | 1 d |
Average daily return and share of up days by weekday
Gross exposure, % of equity (last 120 days), and where it sits
Share of net PnL